Post by Fountainguy97 on Oct 4, 2016 18:10:22 GMT -5
And GOOO!!
Models once again showing how crazy this storm is. we still have models that are way different on timing and even strength and track.
Honestly I have no idea what will happen but everything is on the table from a FL landfall then scraping up the coast to an NC landfall and even a miss.
IF the Eur o is right about the weak trough then its gonna miss NC, it needs to move fast and move more north, if this thing isnt NE of the forecast plots through the Bahamas its game over for NC to get a hit...
Post by snowlover91 on Oct 4, 2016 20:58:28 GMT -5
I think we will see models start to trend east tonight or tomorrow. We see this every winter they have several shifts west then a few runs easy, back and forth as they nail things down. Remember with a Matthew the models shifted to a Jamaica landfall with some even going west of Jamaica only to realize the ridge wasn't as strong and it ended up hitting Haiti. I think we see a similar situation where models were catching on yesterday, shifted west and then will shift east within the next 12-18 hours.
Post by snowlover91 on Oct 4, 2016 23:27:56 GMT -5
Lol this is crazy. If this thing does a loop and hits Florida again it would be like a Joaquin redo right? If I remember correctly it was forecast for NC but then did a loop or something crazy and hit Florida.
Post by snowlover91 on Oct 4, 2016 23:53:18 GMT -5
Something of interest is that the higher resolution models like the NAM and RGEM are keeping Matthew more offshore Florida with a NC impact. The CMC run tonight is also in this camp. Then the other camp is Euro/GFS/UKMET with a graze of the coast then a big loop back towards Florida.