So are reduced to believing 96hr forecast plots and living by the nam for tropical systems?
Of course not. I'm not living by any model. They all have enough inconsistencies for me to have no confidence in them. I'm watching models out of habit at this point. Honestly not much proof that anyone or model knows whats going to happen so I'm watching his track as it happens.
So are reduced to believing 96hr forecast plots and living by the nam for tropical systems?
If your so sure they are wrong and you know what the storm is gonna do why don't you go ahead and make a official call right now on exactly where this thing is going to go.....every time the GFS runs it takes a strong trough and evaporates it...the problem is the trough keeps verifying stronger and deeper....the model insist its going to vanish..here is how much the GFS has changed with the trough in just the last day....so far the trough has shown no signs its gonna go away this fast...
Chances are the GFS/Euro are right at least to the point that it doesn't get this far north...but until the models get into better agreement its still a threat to NC....
Last Edit: Oct 5, 2016 11:16:36 GMT -5 by downeastnc
Post by snowlover91 on Oct 5, 2016 12:52:30 GMT -5
For those who haven't seen the UKMET it made an interesting change. It now brings Matthew up the coast of Florida with potential landfall near Myrtle Beach, SC. Then instead of heading east of south for the cyclonic loop it brings it up the NC coast.
Also here is a link showing some of the extreme damage in Cuba. They got hit really hard from this unfortunately.
Euro keeps the trough stronger longer, every run the Euro has it keeps the trough 12 hrs longer than the previous run then vanishes it....if it does that one more time it will move that east turn to right over eastern NC.....
Euro keeps the trough stronger longer, every run the Euro has it keeps the trough 12 hrs longer than the previous run then vanishes it....if it does that one more time it will move that east turn to right over eastern NC.....
It's definitely not you the Euro is a little faster and takes it right off Wilmington now. Maybe the NAM is onto something. The Euro and UKMET have nearly identical tracks with it just along the FL coast and potential landfall between Myrtle Beach and Wilmington.
Euro more north and west. cane conditions possible for most of NC coast. If it goes a little east off florida and a little west up here it could cut across eastern nc as a strong cane.
This one has to be a headache for the NHC. So much coastline in danger and maybe some or maybe none see huge impacts or no impacts. The NHC is gonna get raked over the coals unjustly if this does miss further east.