00Z GFS and Euro big loops off SE coast, CMC was back to eastern NC hit....NHC shifts track way offshore we almost out of the cone crazy the shift in modeling that happened yesterday...00Z GFS never gets north of 32N or about the latitude of Charleston.
He is moving faster than the models have, he is already past the point yesterdays 12Z Euro had him at today at noon, the reason the CMC and NAM get up to NC is they move the storm faster because the trough is sharper....today is the do or die day IMO, the storm needs to trend NE off Florida and faster for it to be a threat to us.....I don't see that happening though the 500MB differences at 72hrs between the CMC/GFS/NAM should be criminal....
RGEM stronger with the trough and faster with the low it only goes out 48 hrs but this track and timing with that strong of a trough should put NC in play...
Ron it's interesting to me how the NAM and RGEM both still take it up to NC while other models are indicating the loop thing. I'm wondering if the NAM and RGEM are picking up some mesoscale interactions that other models aren't high enough resolution to pick up or maybe they're handling the trough better?
What's also interesting is the Euro ensembles don't support the OP run very well. Most of them have more of a NAM type track with some grazing the coast and heading NE and a few making landfall. A few do the loop but not that many. Makes me wonder. Today will definitely be the day that's critical since we will find out how close to Florida it gets. The 12z runs should be interesting. Also if Matthew regains category 4 or 5 status that would help pull him poleward quicker as well.
I think today we see the storm trend east off Florida and further up the coast with less a loop and more of a general ENE turn OTS...the 00Z CMC actually was a decent hit, he continues to reorganize and seems to be moving NNW pretty quickly ATM, he will be at the spot the Euro has him at tonight at 7pm in a few hrs.....
I'm thinking the interaction with Nicole is throwing models off some. Maybe this is why the high resolution models still impact NC directly. Nicole is a small storm with a tiny circulation right now. Perhaps the global models are struggling to figure out the mesoscale impacts Nicole will have on the HP while models like the NAM and RGEM might be picking up on it better. It's hard to say what will happen at this point since models have taken such a dramatic shift.
Post by Fountainguy97 on Oct 5, 2016 10:33:51 GMT -5
I am interested in the high res models. I'm not sure how well they handle tropical storms but I kNow they are made for complicated patterns in the short range... Very curious to see them keeping this off the coast.. mind you the NAM has this bad boy CRANKING into the lower 930s
WOW
Last Edit: Oct 5, 2016 10:35:16 GMT -5 by Fountainguy97