Post by snowlover91 on Oct 5, 2016 17:09:53 GMT -5
Well the 18z GFS didn't make a huge jump but it did trend more north and east with the storm. Still much further south though when the turn east begins compared with the Euro and other models. I am surprised the NHC went with the loop moreso at 5pm considering how all the major models at 12z shifted more to an up the coast solution. The 18z NAM still indicates this could happen also.
Well the 18z GFS didn't make a huge jump but it did trend more north and east with the storm. Still much further south though when the turn east begins compared with the Euro and other models. I am surprised the NHC went with the loop moreso at 5pm considering how all the major models at 12z shifted more to an up the coast solution. The 18z NAM still indicates this could happen also.
At this point even if the euro brings a landfall to the sc/nc border the nhc would still only blend the 2 and keep the recurve just a little closer to the coast. We would need all major models to go back to the track yesterday when they put the landfall at ILM. If this doesn't happen tonight or by 12z tomorrow then we all know where this one is likely to go.
Its just nuts to me that the GFS went from monster trough Sun/Mon that if anything was to fast and strong and shoving the storm OTS to weak retreating trough in a day....I still think overnight the faster north trend will continue slowly....it will be interesting to see if he stays NE of track overnight through the Bahamas. He is also weaker than most models have him....he could regain his strength quickly but he is still trying to recover from his island hopping....weaker means faster and further north IMO and even if its short term it might be enough to spare Fl....
im cancelling my previous prediction of this getting stronger. maybe it will just hit as a cat1 or weak 2
He's actually wrapping up quite nicely. I expect a nice eye to be clearing out by morning and a category 4 or 5 is possible tomorrow. Also of note is that the wind field has expanded quite a bit. Inner core has organized nicely and the eyewall is finally closing off per recon. Expect pressure to start dropping within the next few hours and then drop quickly once the eye begins clearing.
The 00z runs will be interesting to watch tonight. NHC favors the Euro so if it holds serve with this impacting the NC coast they'll probably adjust the track a good deal at 5am. GFS does have a progressive bias so it may be underestimating the trough a little.
Post by snowlover91 on Oct 5, 2016 20:35:07 GMT -5
00z early guidance has shifted east a tad and slightly closer to NC coast. The only use for these early guidance models is to get an idea what the GFS and other globals may do.
The moisture field to its north on the water vapor seems to be flowing north and then northeast from the storm between the high and the weakening trough. A bigger trough is digging into the 4 corners and the high to matts east is nudging west. My guess is the 24-36 hr plots are gonna be right and then he is gonna turn east and miss at some point further north. I think the NHC has it right.
the nams are all off the coast of florida by a fair amount at least enough to keep the core offshore. Of course they are the nams and well they aren't for tropical systems and should be looked at with caution.
NHC is sticking to the forecast now so unless there is a huge monumental shift to the guidance overnight this one is done deal. We just have to hope it stays far enough south to keep the big time rains out of here.