If big-time rains are all the drama I have to hope for, then I'm hoping for them.
To close to hunting season. Need dry and cool weather for the next 3 months. No wind threat means it is just a sucky storm with nothing to offer but mosquito hatches and I hate mosquitoes
Can't say I've ever seen a storm do what the 0z gfs is saying this one is gonna do. Basically rides less than 50 miles off the coast from central florida to wilmington curving with the contour of the coast. Very bizarre indeed.
Post by snowlover91 on Oct 5, 2016 23:14:29 GMT -5
Of course NHC is sticking with their track, they're waiting to see if 00z Euro and UKMET still take this up the coast of NC before adjusting their track. If they show that then they'll adjust it all north at 5am. We may be looking at a category 4 or even 5 tomorrow. If this thing follows the GFS and rakes the whole FL coastline it will cause terrible damage. Plus if half or most of the eye is over water it won't weaken much at all.
It will weaken if the eyewall is on shore. How much depends on shear and land interaction but this thing will not hold strong cat 4 status if it is partially onshore up the Florida coast. Cmc is now on the loop train.
Post by snowlover91 on Oct 5, 2016 23:53:44 GMT -5
I'm growing concerned for the potential flooding issues. Beginning Friday we have a HP parked over the NE with easterly onshore flow. Meanwhile Matthew to the south with a SE flow. This creates a nice area of life over NC and with tropical moisture plus daytime heating Friday will be wet. Then Saturday as Matthew approaches the north and west sides of it are enhanced by the approaching trough. This drops copious rainfall amounts. The CMC and NAM are showing 6-10" for Eastern NC. This UKMET panel below has 6-10" falling in 12 hours and Matthew is right over Wilmington. Very concerning imo.
Of course NHC is sticking with their track, they're waiting to see if 00z Euro and UKMET still take this up the coast of NC before adjusting their track. If they show that then they'll adjust it all north at 5am. We may be looking at a category 4 or even 5 tomorrow. If this thing follows the GFS and rakes the whole FL coastline it will cause terrible damage. Plus if half or most of the eye is over water it won't weaken much at all.
Euro shows a huge loop. Almost back down in the Bahamas at 120. What a storm to predict.
We're still 72 hours away from our part in this long drawn out track job on Mathew so there's still a little time for change. Seems to be unlikely since a huge majority of models have this doing the loop thing now. Of course the models were at one point in a strong consensus for a NC landfall. The fat lady is warmed up and on stage just waiting for the music to officially begin. Realistically the track the models take it on is a bizarre one and its one I've never seen.
The question now becomes how far north does it get and does the rain shield get us. Most modeling says yes we get tons of rain but again historical experience says if its 100 miles or more off Wilmington we don't typically see much or hardly any rain.
Dennis, Ophelia, Alex, Bob, Emily, Earl, all brought storm conditions to the coast with very little impacts this deep inland.
Yeah, I noticed an hour ago that no one on any of the boards was play-by-playing the Euro. I figured then and there it meant bad, boring news. Silence is the weasely way internet mets impart bad news, you know. Now comes the 5 a.m. NHC advisory. So I guess the jig is up -- Matthew really looks to be pulling this stupid, insane loop back down south. Where WPC gets off projecting me to pick up 6" of rain in this non-event, I haven't a clue. But applying the Bozart equation I actually expect only 1.5". Maybe. If I'm lucky.
Sure looks like we have a path the models are not letting go of, bad news for central FL but better for everyone else, now of we can just not get any rain or at least no more than a few inches everything will be good.
So here is the current 06Z 0 HR map showing current 500mb setup
Here is the one from Mondays 12Z run that was the worst run GFS had for NC thought brings it right over eastern NC, crazy how close that is, the difference over the next 48 hr is current run is a lot faster weaker with the trough on the current runs. If Matt is faster and east today it might be a hint that the models are too quick to weaken and lift the trough....doubtful they are that wrong in this range though.
Last Edit: Oct 6, 2016 7:19:04 GMT -5 by downeastnc