I guess next we will start taking 240hr dgex clown maps seriously.
It may hit here. There is really no model agreement it's October and landfalling canes are rare because the recurve is the name of the game. Now if the NHC starts sticking to the belief this is gonna shoot up the coast and starts discounting the windshield wiping then I'll start paying much more attention.
Looks like its gonna skim the very eastern tip of Cuba so minimal disruption is likely.
NHC slowed him down a lot at the 5pm advisory. At the 11am they had him making landfall at 8am and now he is still southeast of wilmington a little ways at 2pm saturday. Timing differences are a big problem with this forecast
Well that Euro run was different....grazing landfall central FL then north to right of Sav then NE to Charleston then due east where it chills for a bit.....then maybe SW back to FL....but its not a good run lots of issues, almost no trough present on the Euro it just looks nothing like the GFS at 500
Toss the Euro it was a bad run, it was late due to a main frame crash and the run is gibberish....
Anyone support this mainframe crash with some evidence?
Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin to slit throats. H.L. Mencken
Well that Euro run was different....grazing landfall central FL then north to right of Sav then NE to Charleston then due east where it chills for a bit.....then maybe SW back to FL....but its not a good run lots of issues, almost no trough present on the Euro it just looks nothing like the GFS at 500
Toss the Euro it was a bad run, it was late due to a main frame crash and the run is gibberish....
Anyone support this mainframe crash with some evidence?
Just what folks on twitter where saying, saw it on AMWX......
Nam vs GFS 84 hr 500MB map one of these is very wrong with its hurricane location, even though the features are almost identical.....
Last Edit: Oct 4, 2016 17:18:03 GMT -5 by downeastnc
Am getting leery ... think I may need to jump off a cliff after all the overnight models are in. From the thrill of victory to the agony of a non-event? Sigh.
Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin to slit throats. H.L. Mencken
Am getting leery ... think I may need to jump off a cliff after all the overnight models are in. From the thrill of victory to the agony of a non-event? Sigh.
It's the same with winter storms: the models can go haywire 4 or 5 days out, and then snap to again.
Am getting leery ... think I may need to jump off a cliff after all the overnight models are in. From the thrill of victory to the agony of a non-event? Sigh.
It's the same with winter storms: the models can go haywire 4 or 5 days out, and then snap to again.
Patience.
This!!!! Way to early to write this one off.....the only time the models all agreed was yesterday when they landfalled eastern NC.....now they are diverging again so lets see what happens, the track the GFS and EURO have is just odd, never seen a storm do that, the NAM and runs from yesterday however looked like the kind of track these storms ultimately take...there is a reason the east coast of Florida and GA up to central SC have so few hurricane strikes and why the SC/NC border is like a hurricane magnet. This is my totally unscientific reasoning on why a track from the Bahamas to ILM makes the most sense......
Last Edit: Oct 4, 2016 17:53:10 GMT -5 by downeastnc
We should start a new thread soon as we start getting down to the wire. He is over the far eastern tip of cuba and not gonna encounter the wider part of the island.