The landfall in central SC heading N is a common one for models to run, but it almost always ends up landfalling around SC/NC border if you look at the history they just dont seem to hit down there and ride up inland for whatever reason. I think just about every cane we have had in my lifetime was suppose to come in around Charleston to Myrtle Beach and they all ended up NC/SC border. This one could hit down there and do what the models had but its pretty uncommon if it does.
can everyone see the radar at the bottom of the screen? Its why i think matt will RI in bahamas. sw atlantic is as good as it gets now for deepening and that band of storms offshore look to become part of matts huge circulation once north of cuba.
Post by Fountainguy97 on Oct 4, 2016 5:18:50 GMT -5
Just an overnight model run synopsis:
Gfs: landfall Cmc: landfall Hwrf: landfall Gfdl: landfall Euro: landfall or EXTREMELY close to it Gefs: consensus is barely off of the coast EPs: ditto
Remember that even if the center is just offshore the eye wall will be blasting through coastal communities. I would also note Matthew will probably have a decent forward speed by the time it gets to N.C. so the left side won't be "all that", but if the storm is strong enough it would still give a good kick.
If the storm is sub 940 as some models indicate the left side will still be pretty intense especially the eyewall. I think shear impacting it as it is about to make landfall in NC will probably weaken it but then again it has been relatively unaffected by shear. For example when it reached Cat 5 status in the Caribbean the NHC was shocked because they analyzed 15-25kts of shear over it and usually a cat 5 needs less than 10kts and perfect conditions.
For landfall zone the angle of approach will make it a nightmare to forecast. With everything clustering around a landfall between Myrtle Beach to MHX I have high confidence it will probably make landfall between Wilmington and MHX.
977 low centered right over the central coastal plain at 00Z Sunday. 977 should support -- what? -- 90 mph sustained?
It would be lower than that. The high res GFS is better for pressure and it indicates 930-940 range for landfall. It's not alone in that though, Euro is similar and then GFDL/HWRF are also similar. I think realistically we could see around 940-945mb pressure at landfall but due to larger size probably high cat 3 winds. It will probably explode in the Caribbean and then start an EWRC and the timing of that, if it happens, would be key.
977 low centered right over the central coastal plain at 00Z Sunday. 977 should support -- what? -- 90 mph sustained?
It would be lower than that. The high res GFS is better for pressure and it indicates 930-940 range for landfall. It's not alone in that though, Euro is similar and then GFDL/HWRF are also similar. I think realistically we could see around 940-945mb pressure at landfall but due to larger size probably high cat 3 winds. It will probably explode in the Caribbean and then start an EWRC and the timing of that, if it happens, would be key.
Keep in mind that would be the strongest or second strongest storm to hit here EVER......the chances are the pressure will be closer to 950-960MB and that will still support a 120mph hurricane