I don't think it's going to miss NC. While I've no idea where landfall will be, I'm confident there will be one, in either SC or NC. Yes, I'd make a small wager on that. (Bet you're surprised to hear me say this.)
As for the barometric pressure, I wouldn't expect anything extremely low because he's going to have a lot of interaction with land along the way. For wind speeds, very tough call, always ... too early to guess.
Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin to slit throats. H.L. Mencken
this one is gonna be a big disappointment. After the hype and evacs all up and down the coast it will stay east and the storm fatigue will grow across the coastal areas.
this one is gonna be a big disappointment. After the hype and evacs all up and down the coast it will stay east and the storm fatigue will grow across the coastal areas.
I see you have entered into your usual denial stage you get whenever we have a pending snow or cane......model support strongly suggest a Cat2/3 hurricane impacting eastern NC Sat...of course it can change but it wont change much at this point, if it misses wide right it will be a nowcasting type thing...
this one is gonna be a big disappointment. After the hype and evacs all up and down the coast it will stay east and the storm fatigue will grow across the coastal areas.
Here's how I see it (after doing tons of reading this morning):
Matthew will miss Florida (somewhat comfortably) and remain mostly intact. Recurving well off the GA coast the storm will maintain a lot of power as it heads for the Carolinas. Landfall will be Cape Fear +/- 100 miles. It will pass inland of the sounds up here. Sustained winds in our area will reach 40-50mph with gust at or near hurricane force.
(Reserve the right for modifications this afternoon.)
P.S. take heart because I'm almost always unimpressed with forecasts here in N.C. This will be one of the only times you find me optimistic.
The thing is though the models have been showing a pressure sub 945 for days with Matthew off our coast. This can't be ignored even though it would be incredibly rare. The fact they indicate strengthening in the Bahamas is likely and this is crossing very little in the way of land.
Steve why do you say this will miss NC completely? There is no evidence to back this up with GFS, Euro, UKMET, and CMC consensus on a NC landfall. Most ensemble members also indicate this happening. NHC has a landfall.
this one is gonna be a big disappointment. After the hype and evacs all up and down the coast it will stay east and the storm fatigue will grow across the coastal areas.
Here's how I see it (after doing tons of reading this morning):
Matthew will miss Florida (somewhat comfortably) and remain mostly intact. Recurving well off the GA coast the storm will maintain a lot of power as it heads for the Carolinas. Landfall will be Cape Fear +/- 100 miles. It will pass inland of the sounds up here. Sustained winds in our area will reach 40-50mph with gust at or near hurricane force.
(Reserve the right for modifications this afternoon.)
P.S. take heart because I'm almost always unimpressed with forecasts here in N.C. This will be one of the only times you find me optimistic.
It will gust better than hurricane force if it tracks up Hwy 17, unless its a weak ugly Cat 1, if it is close to what the models currently have strength wise then gust 80-100 mph are likely in Pitt Co....assuming its a strong Cat2 weak 3 of course
We had 80+ gust in Bertha, Fran, Floyd, Irene....and this thing looks to be as strong as any of these if not stronger....granted exact track plays in but if its close to the latest GFS/CMC/GFDL we get spanked even on the "weak" side..plus the approaching jet streak could actually make the west side stronger....as it tries to capture the storm and it interacts with the front
Last Edit: Oct 4, 2016 8:55:54 GMT -5 by downeastnc
The thing is though the models have been showing a pressure sub 945 for days with Matthew off our coast. This can't be ignored even though it would be incredibly rare. The fact they indicate strengthening in the Bahamas is likely and this is crossing very little in the way of land.
Steve why do you say this will miss NC completely? There is no evidence to back this up with GFS, Euro, UKMET, and CMC consensus on a NC landfall. Most ensemble members also indicate this happening. NHC has a landfall.
Historical experience tyler. I've seen storms track ene just inland and we get nothing here. Current track from nhc leaves room for the slightest shift to the east to shift to a no landfall forecast. If it rides up just offshore the western windfield will be contracted and we will have a half a cane with the weak side affecting us.
You have to remember I was in the sw eyewall of isabel and gusted to mid 50s while just 30 miles to my ne had gust to 100.
One doesn't forget the many minor details and fluctuations that make huge impacts to the sensible weather.
Post by Fountainguy97 on Oct 4, 2016 9:07:36 GMT -5
Wow 12z guidance is even further inland we may see gville in the eye wall. That is now on the table. This thing will have upper 80 ocean temps and a well defined core. Honestly it should be a cat 4 in the Bahamas weakening too super strong cat 3 for landfall
The thing is though the models have been showing a pressure sub 945 for days with Matthew off our coast. This can't be ignored even though it would be incredibly rare. The fact they indicate strengthening in the Bahamas is likely and this is crossing very little in the way of land.
Steve why do you say this will miss NC completely? There is no evidence to back this up with GFS, Euro, UKMET, and CMC consensus on a NC landfall. Most ensemble members also indicate this happening. NHC has a landfall.
Historical experience tyler. I've seen storms track ene just inland and we get nothing here. Current track from nhc leaves room for the slightest shift to the east to shift to a no landfall forecast. If it rides up just offshore the western windfield will be contracted and we will have a half a cane with the weak side affecting us.
You have to remember I was in the sw eyewall of isabel and gusted to mid 50s while just 30 miles to my ne had gust to 100.
One doesn't forget the many minor details and fluctuations that make huge impacts to the sensible weather.
Isabel is the only one, and she came in NE of us, Bertha, Fran, Bonnie, Floyd, Irene all gave us hurricane force wind gust.....and this storm is modeled to get as close or closer to us than Bonnie or Irene did and they where the two weakest of the storms....
The thing is though the models have been showing a pressure sub 945 for days with Matthew off our coast. This can't be ignored even though it would be incredibly rare. The fact they indicate strengthening in the Bahamas is likely and this is crossing very little in the way of land.
Steve why do you say this will miss NC completely? There is no evidence to back this up with GFS, Euro, UKMET, and CMC consensus on a NC landfall. Most ensemble members also indicate this happening. NHC has a landfall.
Historical experience tyler. I've seen storms track ene just inland and we get nothing here. Current track from nhc leaves room for the slightest shift to the east to shift to a no landfall forecast. If it rides up just offshore the western windfield will be contracted and we will have a half a cane with the weak side affecting us.
You have to remember I was in the sw eyewall of isabel and gusted to mid 50s while just 30 miles to my ne had gust to 100.
One doesn't forget the many minor details and fluctuations that make huge impacts to the sensible weather.
It certainly could shift east some but could also go more west. Truth be told with all the upper air data in the model output and balloons and the energy onshore now I don't see how this goes OTS when every model says otherwise. I am expecting landfall between ILM and MHX.
The winds could be a different story. Most models have the west side quite weak but the higher resolution ones are picking up on sustained TS force and hurricane force gusts well inland. A lot of what Greenville and surrounding areas see will depend on the final track and intensity. I think we will have a good idea on final track by Thursday afternoon.
4 days out margin of error is avg of 130 miles. That ran this could and fall over southern sc or miss east.
Yall are discussing the worst hurricane potential in decades.
The extreme solutions are always the least likely to verify
While the average margin of error may be 130 miles at 4 days we need consider the confidence level we're looking at today. The clustering is so tight, the agreement among all the globals so complete ... I would cut that error margin in half.
(You sure it's only 130 miles at 4 days? I'd have thought more.)