4 days out margin of error is avg of 130 miles. That ran this could and fall over southern sc or miss east.
Yall are discussing the worst hurricane potential in decades.
The extreme solutions are always the least likely to verify
I just have a hard time ignoring the model consistency that for days has had this sub 945mb off our coast. When the Euro, GFS, and other models indicate this for run after run you have to pay attention. They have done fairly well and the Bahamas is historically a prime place for strengthening. By the time shear hits Matthew he will have already made landfall and it'll be too late. There is a reason the closest analog for this is Hazel. This is a serious situation and to play it down can be dangerous imo. I think models have a good handle on this now and you can see that by the fact they're all converging on a NC landfall, something I've been predicting for days on my weather page.
Joaquin had great model consensus as well for a nc landfall.
We are 4 days out. Lots can change and to o er hype is the reason for storm fatigue. By thursday more information if it looks like a nc landfall then we can hit panic button
Joaquin had great model consensus as well for a nc landfall.
We are 4 days out. Lots can change and to o er hype is the reason for storm fatigue. By thursday more information if it looks like a nc landfall then we can hit panic button
No it didn't it had the opposite, GFS/CMC versus the Euro, all 3 major models had the center of Matt at or on land in NC their last runs......Euro never brought Joaquin to NC....
Last Edit: Oct 4, 2016 9:33:54 GMT -5 by downeastnc
The euro was the only model that took Joaquin east from Bahamas. Someone posted the models for Joaquin in the thread at american. There was a huge number of models except the euro that took him to nc.
If we have another solid 24 hours of constant landfall in NC and it's up 17 then we might get roughed up. If it landfall ilm and moves nene just inland we won't get gusts over 50.
The euro was the only model that took Joaquin east from Bahamas. Someone posted the models for Joaquin in the thread at american. There was a huge number of models except the euro that took him to nc.
If we have another solid 24 hours of constant landfall in NC and it's up 17 then we might get roughed up. If it landfall ilm and moves nene just inland we won't get gusts over 50.
It could miss I don't think for a second that that isn't possible, and honestly regardless of what the models show or what track the NHC forecast even when its 6-12 hrs out it still wont be a sure thing they never are.....the chances the models have the exact time and angle of the turn are low, but the majority of the runs since yesterday have been landfalls for SC/NC, if that holds up today at 12Z especially if the Euro comes on in then we need to look at it hard, timing suggest landfall between 4am and 2pm Sat so that's 72ish hrs away that's only 3 days.....based on the early 12Z plots I think its gonna even go west a bit again....
Last Edit: Oct 4, 2016 9:50:20 GMT -5 by downeastnc
4am to 2pm saturday is 90 to 96 hours not 72. We still have wednesday,Thursday, Friday and then if it hits saturday day. Still 4 days out. Today's 12z run is exactly 96 hours put from potential impact saturday day.
Before we get carried away I want one of you to post a 4 day hurricane maps from the NHC where the plot 4 days out stayed in the same spot for the entire 4 days. I don't mean 50-100 mile shifts I mean rock steady for 4 days?
Post by snowlover91 on Oct 4, 2016 10:42:38 GMT -5
New GFS running let's see what it shows. I'm thinking a Wilmington landfall or close by. One this passes Cuba and heads NW that's when it will get interesting.
If anything this might miss us to the west or at least landfall far enough into SC to only bring us TS conditions by the time it gets here.....still I expect the track to wander a bit west or east but in the end he will do like all the others and hit the SC/NC border headed NNE then bend NE over eastern NC......its just what they when they hit from that angle....
Its all about timing.....the slower runs tend to miss cause they give the trough a chance to run it down.....that's why until we are a day or so out there is no telling for sure what it is going to do....still think the faster movement will be the correct call, they tend to speed up when they turn north usually, so the slow crawl doesn't really make sense given the strength of the ridge and trough....
Last Edit: Oct 4, 2016 11:23:58 GMT -5 by downeastnc
Holy smokes, I just noticed something ... the black plots on the NHC track ... Matthew is still a hurricane off the New Jersey coast! I thought it would be down to a TS by then.
Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin to slit throats. H.L. Mencken
Holy smokes, I just noticed something ... the black plots on the NHC track ... Matthew is still a hurricane off the New Jersey coast! I thought it would be down to a TS by then.
Actually a decent cane at that, should make a second landfall along RI/Cape Cod as a cane still.......