Since we are into may we'll move the disco over to this thread.
Some hi res models really give us several rounds of storms and heavy rains and some not so much. The 4k nam tonight cuts the county in half with the northwestern side seeing and inch or two and the southern half seeing 3-4 inches. The WRF-ARW is the opposite with 2+ in the Northwest side trending down as you head south with only .50 along the southern pitt border. The WRF-NMM says what rain and has all of pitt county under .25 for the 48 hour period. The RGEM has eastern pitt county with a 2 inch spot and the rest of the county over 1.25.
Marginal risk up for 2-3 days in a row with a slight risk up today from the triangle westward.
Post by snowlover91 on May 2, 2016 11:01:20 GMT -5
Today should be quite active and I expect in the next hour to see the area of slight risk expanded east some since we are getting excellent daytime heating right now. It'll be nice to have thunderstorms just about every afternoon this week.
Post by snowlover91 on May 5, 2016 10:21:03 GMT -5
Numerous storms popping up already, many with small hail. They are slow movers too so anyone under these cells could see accumulating hail and a few inches of rain.
Post by snowlover91 on May 5, 2016 23:52:33 GMT -5
Yeah pretty crazy and the mountains seeing some snow too... Not sure how common that is for this time of year but early May snow is probably quite unusual. Had some heavy rain here in Raleigh this morning then a steady mist this evening and tonight. I would estimate maybe 1.5" of rain here in Knightdale.
Since we are into may we'll move the disco over to this thread.
Some hi res models really give us several rounds of storms and heavy rains and some not so much. The 4k nam tonight cuts the county in half with the northwestern side seeing and inch or two and the southern half seeing 3-4 inches. The WRF-ARW is the opposite with 2+ in the Northwest side trending down as you head south with only .50 along the southern pitt border. The WRF-NMM says what rain and has all of pitt county under .25 for the 48 hour period. The RGEM has eastern pitt county with a 2 inch spot and the rest of the county over 1.25.
Marginal risk up for 2-3 days in a row with a slight risk up today from the triangle westward.
Looking at the radar estimates I would say the 4k nam did a great job with this event iverall.
Yeah the 4km NAM has been on a roll recently. It's pretty crazy that we had temps in the upper 50s yesterday for early May. Looks like our next system will move into the area next week, it will definitely be a severe weather threat for the Midwest but for us it's still uncertain.
Post by snowlover91 on May 11, 2016 1:30:00 GMT -5
Storms on the way for Wednesday through Saturday... Hard to tell about severe chances every model has a different solution as usual but a few storms definitely should go severe.
Forecast low of 43 for Sunday night. That's impressive!
Friend of mine up in Erie, PA area said they were getting sleet and snow mix today! Pretty crazy to see that this time of year.
Next st week looks like it'll be quite stormy and cloudy... We need all the cool weather and rain we can get because I'm afraid this summer could have a bad drought across the SE once the ridging begins to build in.
Post by snowlover91 on May 16, 2016 21:51:11 GMT -5
Rainy weather for tomorrow especially western areas. A solid 1-2" with less here in the central and eastern areas. Another cloudy, rainy day ahead. Enjoy these while they last because this summer might be brutal.