Post by Fountainguy97 on Oct 11, 2018 6:46:23 GMT -5
Here is the hrrr trend.
Typically I’ve found that the hrrr locks in between 8-10hrs out. And it normally has a slow trend to that point. I’ve seen it crush us with severe weather 14-18 hours out only to trend to nothing by 8 hrs. This is in that timeframe but is for more wind.
Click
Last Edit: Oct 11, 2018 6:47:02 GMT -5 by Fountainguy97
Post by Fountainguy97 on Oct 11, 2018 11:00:33 GMT -5
You can see the beginnings of our wind band here on radar now.
Main front band is about to start here in the Fuquay-Varina area. lets see if the front edge 40-50mph gusts are accurate. Already some gusts into the 30s probably
Post by Fountainguy97 on Oct 11, 2018 15:05:25 GMT -5
Meanwhile from RAH
TS Michael will track NE of the forecast area over the next 6-9 hours, with a slowly waning influence. But until it exits, the band of strong to damaging N winds within convection on the immediate W side of the storm center, just ahead of the incoming cold front, will progress slowly E through central NC. We`ve seen numerous reports of wind gusts up to 35-45 kts already, and based on the latest trends (including 50-60 kts observed by the WFO Blacksburg radar at 1000-1500 ft AGL) and consistent high res model guidance, this will only get worse as it tracks east. With these intense winds and accompanying second round of rain, will maintain the tropical storm warning into the early evening.
Well ... it's blowing at hurricane force thousands of feet up in the sky, so that counts, right? Sorry for the snark, but this storm has just been another exhausting, stupid disappointment, like almost all of them find some way to be. I ended up with a measly .48" in my rain gauge -- just enough rain to give the mosquitoes a few more days of encouragement. From a 4" forecast down to a .48" reality. I may be on to a new Bozart Rule for QPFs.
And now on to the deadly boredom of fall season, followed by the endless, pointless disappointments (and high heating bills) of winter. And the wheel goes 'round and 'round. Someone tell me when it's May.