Should be interesting as the track brings it cup over central/eastern NC on many models.......fast mover as well so thats a plus will limit the rain and maybe get it up here while it still has enough wind to make things interesting.....
Last Edit: Oct 8, 2018 17:52:44 GMT -5 by downeastnc
With recon finding a couple different circulations it's very likely this one reforms a new center and if that's far enough east it might shift the modeling to a cross Florida then OTS track.
Hard for me to expect winds higher than say 40-45 given the length over land it has to travel.....though the transition to ET could be a wild card in how efficient it is getting the 850's to the surface, the ICON actually has the pressure deepening as the center passes over NC and begins to go xtropical....could be a meh event with gust to 40ish or it could be a wild 4-6 hrs with rogue gust getting to 60-75 mph.....probably wont know which of those will happen until it actually gets here though.
Hard for me to expect winds higher than say 40-45 given the length over land it has to travel.....though the transition to ET could be a wild card in how efficient it is getting the 850's to the surface, the ICON actually has the pressure deepening as the center passes over NC and begins to go xtropical....could be a meh event with gust to 40ish or it could be a wild 4-6 hrs with rogue gust getting to 60-75 mph.....probably wont know which of those will happen until it actually gets here though.
I think Michael will surprise many in NC. NHC has it at 60mph sustained and 70mph gusts over PGV.
The speed of the storm will allow it to make it much much further inland than a normal storm. that combined with a very well organized major hurricane at landfall.
Michael's winds will reach how Florence was in PGV and could surpass Florence by far if NHC is right with 70mph gusts.
In order for it to "surprise" me I would need to see gust 75+......the only 3 storms to give me gust over 80 mph have been March 1993, Bertha, Fran.......Irene may have hit 80 and Floyd as well but neither are officially that high here.....outside of those 3 storms any other gust I have seen over 80 would be thunderstorm related and I can only think of a few contenders.
Gonna be hard to expect much more than 50 mph winds here....that said GFS has 925 around 50-60 mph.....so that would be peak potential gust. Euro is stronger it has 70-100 mph winds at 925 over us....with a 986 surface pressure thats not terribly high up at all really, and I think IF IF IF that was the case then potentially we could see gust to hurricane force depending on how well it was mixing down, historically true topical systems inland do a lousy job of mixing down.....however a transitioning system might be more efficient at getting these winds to the surface....so it will come down to how hybrid this storm is up our way....also the north flow into the west side could actually be the windiest time as the dryer air could help with the mixing....
This is in KPH and show the winds at 925 MB
Last Edit: Oct 8, 2018 17:03:57 GMT -5 by downeastnc
12 hours ago, the forecast track was near Fountain. Then at 5 p.m. it was over Wilson. Now, at 11 p.m. it just about over my house.
Going to be a interesting afternoon to say the least.....whats hilarious to me is the kids in Pitt Co were suppose to have a half day Thur and Friday off and they changed that to make up days for Flo......now there is a solid chance they dont go those two days depending on what kind of wind we actually see.....I expect inland tropical storm warnings though by tomorrow if this track and intensity holds up....
Less-than-normal weakening after landfall in the 48-to 96-h period is expected due to Michael's fast forward speed of 20-30 kt.
WRAL in house model has 60-65 mph gust over Gville down to New Bern.....
Wonder how much the wral in house uses the euro since it's pretty close to what it shows. No idea what to expect with this storm. I am confident we see gust to at least TS strength. There's a big difference between 40 and 65mph though.
Post by Fountainguy97 on Oct 9, 2018 6:18:59 GMT -5
The trend overnight is too maintain Michael’s strength further inland. EURO, UK, GFS all maintain strength much longer. EURO and UK probably have 70mph TS or minimal cane over NC.
The trend overnight is too maintain Michael’s strength further inland. EURO, UK, GFS all maintain strength much longer. EURO and UK probably have 70mph TS or minimal cane over NC.
We will see, it needs to speed up, I would feel much better about that kind of strength if the center was here within 20-24 hrs of landfall versus 30-36 hrs....plus there are tons of other factors, dry air working into the system would help mixing and get some of the higher winds down to the surface, is there going to be strong banding on the NE side as it approaches producing lines of storms thus tornados and bigger gust...... I still think 50-55 is the top end right now need to see faster forward speed and all the models keeping its pressure lower longer to really think we got a shot at 60 plus....