If the system is clipping along when it passes by us, some folks within a narrow corridor could see some interesting winds.
There is a lot going on.
1. Michael is beating intensity forecasts by a mile. Cat 4 likely.
2. Michaels forward speed alone will easily bring 40+winds to NC
3. The transition from a symmetric warm core to asymmetric cold core. This will force dry air into the system as it breaks down. It will also induce baroclinic wind enhancement across Eastern NC.
So the ingredients are here for 70-80mph gusts across parts of Eastern NC
Last Edit: Oct 9, 2018 17:58:08 GMT -5 by Fountainguy97
yeah, at this point not real sure which side it passes me on in Moncure
Over or just east of you, but like Fountain said the west side is going to have the wind max as the dry air works in to the center so I wouldn't be surprised to see gust well into the 40-60 mph range even for the triangle.....and tornados are going to be a issue for everyone when the center is SW of us....
How about that break in the hurricane-force probabilities over eastern GA an SC? Do our ramping-up probabilities in NC owe to the transition toward post-tropical?
How about that break in the hurricane-force probabilities over eastern GA an SC? Do our ramping-up probabilities in NC owe to the transition toward post-tropical?
Most likely. A traditional cane would bring TS winds 40-50. But the transition and enhancement on the backside (similar to Matthew) could boost us to some 70mph gusts
How about that break in the hurricane-force probabilities over eastern GA an SC? Do our ramping-up probabilities in NC owe to the transition toward post-tropical?
Yeah as the center gets to NC the DP's to the west crash into the 50's, this air getting mixed in will cause lots of big gust...the Euro has the biggest gust on the west side of the circulation....as for how big it is gonna depend on how much is left of Mike...The GFS currently gives us gust to 50ish but only has Mike around 90-100 mph at landfall the Euro has him at 120-130 at landfall and brings us 60-80 mph type gust....so far the Euro is winning on the intensity battle....if the GFS ramps up overnight with the strength we will see if our winds follow suit.
This storm is forecast to make landfall about 25 miles east of my aunts house in Florida. Hopefully it stays east of her, her house is on water front property on a channel that comes off a bay, if it goes west of her she will be on the side of the bay that gets the real bad storm surge.
Ummmm so this is the new point and click forecast for PGV
Thursday Night Hurricane conditions possible. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Low around 67. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between 2 and 3 inches possible.