The trend overnight is too maintain Michael’s strength further inland. EURO, UK, GFS all maintain strength much longer. EURO and UK probably have 70mph TS or minimal cane over NC.
We will see, it needs to speed up, I would feel much better about that kind of strength if the center was here within 20-24 hrs of landfall versus 30-36 hrs....plus there are tons of other factors, dry air working into the system would help mixing and get some of the higher winds down to the surface, is there going to be strong banding on the NE side as it approaches producing lines of storms thus tornados and bigger gust...... I still think 50-55 is the top end right now need to see faster forward speed and all the models keeping its pressure lower longer to really think we got a shot at 60 plus....
12z nam has sped it up by about 4-6 hrs compared to 06z. now over us between 27-30hrs after landfall.
Trends today will clarify a lot of wind impacts for us.
Latest GFS and ICON still max us around 50 mph...the problem is it either needs to stay fully tropical longer or transition sooner.....tropical systems that have been over land that long generally suck at getting winds aloft to the surface away from the center....that's why the 925 MB winds can be 100 but at the surface your lucky to get 40-50....the GFS did speed it up a bit the center gets here in a little over 24 hrs.....and all models have impressive pressures in the low to mid 980's so we just need something to work those faster winds to the surface.
Getting gust to near 70 just goes against all I know about these systems, then again there has never been a Cat3/4 hitting FL where this is moving NE right at us either so it wouldnt be fair to compare this to other systems in the past since its fairly unique in that in my 46 years it has never happened this way....I would love to see a wind map of the friggen UKie, it has the center going right over us with a pressure of 977 lol....if thats even close to right then there is no way it isnt windy...very windy.
Also the NAM 3k has a few bands of extremely nasty semi discrete supercells out in front of the center as it moves in and the soundings are just a tad tornadic lol......then the big wind is west of center as the gradient packs and the dry air works in.....I mean I guess 60-70 is possible....
Getting gust to near 70 just goes against all I know about these systems, then again there has never been a Cat3/4 hitting FL where this is moving NE right at us either so it wouldnt be fair to compare this to other systems in the past since its fairly unique in that in my 46 years it has never happened this way....I would love to see a wind map of the friggen UKie, it has the center going right over us with a pressure of 977 lol....if thats even close to right then there is no way it isnt windy...very windy.
Also the NAM 3k has a few bands of extremely nasty semi discrete supercells out in front of the center as it moves in and the soundings are just a tad tornadic lol......then the big wind is west of center as the gradient packs and the dry air works in.....I mean I guess 60-70 is possible....
Bro the eps members are INSANE. Most are 975-980mb. And some nasty nasty winds
How insane? This insane.
Obviously this is one of the extreme strong edges. But I’ve flipped through 25 of the members and practically all gust 70+ in Eastern NC
Last Edit: Oct 9, 2018 15:56:38 GMT -5 by Fountainguy97
yeah but I look at it like this, a snow analogy, we are expecting a 1-3" snowfall and the chance are we will be lucky to see it verify much less over perform and dump a foot....that never happens.....I see this the same way I expect 40-50 and am 50/50 on that even verifying and if we end up getting 60-70 mph type gust that would be like getting a foot on a forecast of 2" and when was the last time that happened lol..
Still the trends are interesting and the west side is where we will see the big time gust if they happen as the dry air feeds into the center......and I gotta say the hi res models paint a scary picture IRT to semi discrete cells on the east side and the shear profile is very tornadoey....
Jusat isn't gonna work out for us here I believe. The model outputs for gusts in the upper 60's to 70 just don't seem feasible from a system landfalling so far away. He would need to be moving 30+mph in forward speed and get here ala hazel like to do it. Never seen it before so no reason to believe it now. Just because so many members show it doesn't make it right.
Remember 2 years ago when every gfs ensemble had us with 6 inches or more of snow and we got 2 inches with a bunch of sleet and minor zr accum?
I am not saying it isnt possible or even likely we see gust over 60 mph....the latest GFS has winds around 45-50 at PGV it also only shows max gust at landfall of 115 mph which is well below the other models....if it was more in line with the Euro which has 150-160 mph gust at landfall I suspect our winds on it would be higher. So if Mike comes in at or above say 120 mph then I would lean towards getting gust higher into the 60's.
So this surprised me and actually made me go WTH...this is the NHC prob of hurricane force wind map....up until this advisory it was all offshore and now 20-30% chance we see winds hurricane force......
Last Edit: Oct 9, 2018 17:55:30 GMT -5 by downeastnc