Wind speed probabilities have been reduced. Hurricane speed chances now -zero- for our nape o' the neck. The PGV max gust forecast max in the matrix from Morehead City has been nudged down, too. Wasn’t expecting to wake up to this news. Reckon I’ll go back to bed.
Wind speed probabilities have been reduced. Hurricane speed chances now -zero- for our nape o' the neck. The PGV max gust forecast max in the matrix from Morehead City has been nudged down, too. Wasn’t expecting to wake up to this news. Reckon I’ll go back to bed.
Its kinda of odd too since the winds on the models have pretty much held steady and the storm is a 140 mph at landfall versus 125 at landfall back when they had it reorganizing over us.....they dropped it even though the models all still have it.....current Euro has winds 60-80 over a lot of eastern NC....guess we will see what happens today....
I just don't know what to expect, part of me views these wind maps like the snowfall clown maps....they almost have to be overdone, then again the precedent for a Cat4/5 into the panhandle of FL and then quickly up through the SE hasn't happened in living memory so we have nothing to compare it too. So my first call for peak wind gust at PGV is going to be 58 mph.....and only because almost all the wind maps have 55-60 over Pitt Co....I was thinking 61 but lowered it a bit awaiting 12Z runs.....
I just don't know what to expect, part of me views these wind maps like the snowfall clown maps....they almost have to be overdone, then again the precedent for a Cat4/5 into the panhandle of FL and then quickly up through the SE hasn't happened in living memory so we have nothing to compare it too. So my first call for peak wind gust at PGV is going to be 58 mph.....and only because almost all the wind maps have 55-60 over Pitt Co....I was thinking 61 but lowered it a bit awaiting 12Z runs.....
Yeah we are in unchartted territory for sure.
Here is the 12km NAM comparison between 06z and 12z.
Look at the back side enhancement. Awaiting the more qualified 3km.
Bombing out bigtime 20mbs in 6 hours. Gonna make a run at 155 before landfall but should continue to sustain winds further into Georgia at least with it organizing so much right at landfall.
Bombing out bigtime 20mbs in 6 hours. Gonna make a run at 155 before landfall but should continue to sustain winds further into Georgia at least with it organizing so much right at landfall.
have to wonder what this lower pressure could translate too further upstream. Its 20mb lower than even 3km nam now.