Bombing out bigtime 20mbs in 6 hours. Gonna make a run at 155 before landfall but should continue to sustain winds further into Georgia at least with it organizing so much right at landfall.
have to wonder what this lower pressure could translate too further upstream. Its 20mb lower than even 3km nam now.
Gfs 12z landfalls him at 970mb.....only off by 50MB or so lol.
have to wonder what this lower pressure could translate too further upstream. Its 20mb lower than even 3km nam now.
Gfs 12z landfalls him at 970mb.....only off by 50MB or so lol.
Yeah and for us that difference is huge. our winds will mostly be baroclinically driven and not the traditional storm style winds. Very much like a super blizzard style. WInds will be very gusty. low sustained but super high gusts.
Post by downeastnc on Oct 10, 2018 15:17:59 GMT -5
RAH just talked about the intense wind band on the models like I just posted....
While the surface wind field will have weakened from its current hurricane status, this is a powerful storm with a lot of energy, and the storm`s swift movement will allow far too little time for significant dissipation of this energy. Winds just aloft around the broad center of the storm will remain quite strong, with model projections showing 40-60 kts at 925 mb on either side of the center. And forecast soundings as well as model cross sections indicate sufficient low level mixing just behind the center, as the drier air dives in behind the departing storm, for a focused, particularly intense band of winds from the N. Will monitor for this potential closely through tomorrow. Irrespective of this occurrence, the potential gusts within this still-tropical cyclone warrant an areal expansion of the tropical storm warning, and this will take place after the next NHC forecast package is issued, barring any major track change (path or speed)
WRF has sustained winds 50-55 knts with higher gust over most of us....this is getting legit
RAH just talked about the intense wind band on the models like I just posted....
While the surface wind field will have weakened from its current hurricane status, this is a powerful storm with a lot of energy, and the storm`s swift movement will allow far too little time for significant dissipation of this energy. Winds just aloft around the broad center of the storm will remain quite strong, with model projections showing 40-60 kts at 925 mb on either side of the center. And forecast soundings as well as model cross sections indicate sufficient low level mixing just behind the center, as the drier air dives in behind the departing storm, for a focused, particularly intense band of winds from the N. Will monitor for this potential closely through tomorrow. Irrespective of this occurrence, the potential gusts within this still-tropical cyclone warrant an areal expansion of the tropical storm warning, and this will take place after the next NHC forecast package is issued, barring any major track change (path or speed)
WRF has sustained winds 50-55 knts with higher gust over most of us....this is getting legit
Yeah that back side is going to be ROARING. This is legit. Someone could easily see some gusts into the 70s. That rivals Irene for many.
Post by downeastnc on Oct 10, 2018 15:54:56 GMT -5
Almost all the models have us with a general windy night then a lull for the center passing over, followed by a intense 2-3 hr period of sustained winds 30-50 knts and gust to 70 knts...these are gonna be violent, sharp coming down more than sideways gust....also do not discount a chance at some tornados in the afternoon tomorrow though that chance seems a little less daunting than it was 12 hrs ago.
Almost all the models have us with a general windy night then a lull for the center passing over, followed by a intense 2-3 hr period of sustained winds 30-50 knts and gust to 70 knts...these are gonna be violent, sharp coming down more than sideways gust....also do not discount a chance at some tornados in the afternoon tomorrow though that chance seems a little less daunting than it was 12 hrs ago.
Yeah will be very abrupt gusts. So instead of steady 50-60 with gusts to 70 we will have steady 20-35 with gusts to 70. That sudden 50mph change is much more damaging.
Post by downeastnc on Oct 10, 2018 16:09:00 GMT -5
18Z Nam has roughly 50 knts for several hrs on the front side then the lull then a few hrs of 60-65 knt on the backside...so gust to 50-55 mph then a break then a few hrs of gust to 65-75 mph possible thats pretty insane. Wonder when the MHX folks will mention it....they cant ignore all the modeling and have to at some point say heavy winds that can cause widespread tree and power line issues are possible.
Every winter we hear the models show a March 1980 then we hear every hurricane season that the models crush us with a cat 4......joaquin,irma,maria,matthew,florence all were gonna have epic and none were anywhere near what was modeled.
Models can be wrong and usually are when they show record breaking outputs.
Every winter we hear the models show a March 1980 then we hear every hurricane season that the models crush us with a cat 4......joaquin,irma,maria,matthew,florence all were gonna have epic and none were anywhere near what was modeled.
Models can be wrong and usually are when they show record breaking outputs.
Except this time we had a 919mb hurricane make landfall which is the 3rd strongest in recorded history
Last Edit: Oct 10, 2018 16:19:15 GMT -5 by Fountainguy97