Every winter we hear the models show a March 1980 then we hear every hurricane season that the models crush us with a cat 4......joaquin,irma,maria,matthew,florence all were gonna have epic and none were anywhere near what was modeled.
Models can be wrong and usually are when they show record breaking outputs.
Every winter we hear the models show a March 1980 then we hear every hurricane season that the models crush us with a cat 4......joaquin,irma,maria,matthew,florence all were gonna have epic and none were anywhere near what was modeled.
Models can be wrong and usually are when they show record breaking outputs.
Except this time we had a 919mb hurricane make landfall which is the 3rd strongest in recorded history
Except that landfall happened 750 miles miles upstream.
Every winter we hear the models show a March 1980 then we hear every hurricane season that the models crush us with a cat 4......joaquin,irma,maria,matthew,florence all were gonna have epic and none were anywhere near what was modeled.
Models can be wrong and usually are when they show record breaking outputs.
There really is no precedent for this setup, the models all got those above storms right in this range...we knew Flo wasnt going to be a monster 3 days out.....same with all the others.....this is inside of 24-30 hrs....all the hi res models have the winds gusting over us 50-80 mph, if you where a NWS met would you say screw em that never happens they are wrong? The onlyy models that are meh are the globals that have the pressure and winds all wrong to start with I would much rather go with the models that have the pressure and winds closer to reality. The 18Z GFS that just started this is the first plot.....its too slow and too weak....by a lot....
Post by Fountainguy97 on Oct 10, 2018 16:45:11 GMT -5
The “show” for us is the backside enhancement. Without it and yes we get 20-35mph winds and gusts 40-50 at best. With the enhancement however that changes the game. It’s just like Matthew backside dry air should pull down remaining winds.
Post by downeastnc on Oct 10, 2018 20:18:38 GMT -5
Latest 18 hr HRRR forming "intense wind " band further SW and earlier....also decent wind out in front of the center...gusting 40-50 over a lot of eastern NC already....
Post by downeastnc on Oct 10, 2018 20:35:46 GMT -5
PDS tornado sounding for Pitt Co tomorrow afternoon, hi res models show a few bands of fast moving storms at that time fairly high chance we see some tornados....
Last Edit: Oct 10, 2018 20:36:11 GMT -5 by downeastnc
Just went back to the Matthew II thread. Last page and the hrrr was showing insane ridiculous winds with that one as well. At this point I would be VERY skeptical. If the hrrr overdoes this threat then I would declare it a bias and ignore it in the future.
Just went back to the Matthew II thread. Last page and the hrrr was showing insane ridiculous winds with that one as well. At this point I would be VERY skeptical. If the hrrr overdoes this threat then I would declare it a bias and ignore it in the future.
Yeah.. I feel you. Probably way overdone. By 50-75%.
At least Michael will finally help us get to normal temps.. been wayyyy too long of a summer this year.
Last Edit: Oct 11, 2018 0:47:31 GMT -5 by Fountainguy97
I dunno about 50-75% but the HRRR has backed off the more extreme 60-70 knt stuff out west and now is more 55 knt which is still 60 mph for the western NC folks and I would assume that will translate out in time to us as well though the models currently still have the winds ramping up in central and eastern NC.....time will tell....we will know by this afternoon, NAM has and HRRR have us gusting to 50 by 4-5 pm.....
Last Edit: Oct 11, 2018 4:54:01 GMT -5 by downeastnc
I dunno about 50-75% but the HRRR has backed off the more extreme 60-70 knt stuff out west and now is more 55 knt which is still 60 mph for the western NC folks and I would assume that will translate out in time to us as well though the models currently still have the winds ramping up in central and eastern NC.....time will tell....we will know by this afternoon, NAM has and HRRR have us gusting to 50 by 4-5 pm.....
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Last two hrrr runs have gone back up to 80-90mph. NAM is also up to 70mph.
Let’s see if this short term trend holds. Hrrr so far has verified within 5-10mph for everywhere I’ve checked so far.