Post by downeastnc on Feb 21, 2019 16:14:32 GMT -5
Long range looks good, better than it has in a month at least.....could easily be a monster storm ( yes snow ) the first week of March, with extremely cold air by even Jan standards pushing in.....
Post by downeastnc on Feb 23, 2019 20:39:21 GMT -5
That early March threat looking legit.....solid cold in place with reinforcing shots of cold and a storm tracking through the GOM....if this pans out it could be a significant snowstorm for almost all of NC.....
Post by downeastnc on Feb 24, 2019 19:54:05 GMT -5
Euro ens had 9/10 warning criteria panels and another 10-12 1-3" type events.....GFS has it cold and suppressed, for this time frame I am liking our chances with this setup....
Post by downeastnc on Feb 25, 2019 10:15:46 GMT -5
Euro ens still has numerous big dogs over eastern NC with this setup....probably 7-8 panels give us 8"+ and easily 25-30 panels out of 50 have at least a trace or more...the GFS still look good with a suppressed track and even the CMC is drifting south with its snow totals....still we are talking 8-9 days out so obviously plenty can go wrong here. but there has not been this much agreement in the models this winter since the Dec 13th storm....
Euro ens still has numerous big dogs over eastern NC with this setup....probably 7-8 panels give us 8"+ and easily 25-30 panels out of 50 have at least a trace or more...the GFS still look good with a suppressed track and even the CMC is drifting south with its snow totals....still we are talking 8-9 days out so obviously plenty can go wrong here. but there has not been this much agreement in the models this winter since the Dec 13th storm....
The consensus helps but still an eternity to go in the modeling world and we have seen promising looks quickly fade and die this year so far. We will see once we get inside 72 hours if this one is different.
Post by downeastnc on Feb 25, 2019 16:24:10 GMT -5
This is the latest output from the Op Euro run....again to early to get excited yet but there is a lot of model agreement that we might actually be facing a good storm early next week......
At this point, I'd take 10% of that high total, get to my seasonal average and call it a winter.
Forecast: 33 and rain
Bring on severe weather season 👍
Obviously a lot can change but right now given the setup this is looking pretty doable for a significant eastern NC snowstorm, we are talking legit temps in the upper 20's and snowing hard even during the daytime type snow. Euro starts as sleet/rain Sunday at 6pm, quickly goes all snow and dumps on us with winds gusting 30 mph and heavy snow....that last a good 10-12 hrs till mid morning Monday then tapers off.....then the second wave hits and we warm nose and go all ice/sleet but stay in the mid to upper 20's at the surface, not sure how much we get though...it would be a epic storm which is why it probably wont happen.
00Z Euro looked worse on the OP but the ENS were the best overall so far in terms of members showing a trace or more of snow with 33 of 50 showing a trace or more and 6 of those were warning criteria.....13 total whiffs.....
Obviously a lot can change but right now given the setup this is looking pretty doable for a significant eastern NC snowstorm, we are talking legit temps in the upper 20's and snowing hard even during the daytime type snow. Euro starts as sleet/rain Sunday at 6pm, quickly goes all snow and dumps on us with winds gusting 30 mph and heavy snow....that last a good 10-12 hrs till mid morning Monday then tapers off.....then the second wave hits and we warm nose and go all ice/sleet but stay in the mid to upper 20's at the surface, not sure how much we get though...it would be a epic storm which is why it probably wont happen.
As I read this, you started to get me excited about the possibility...then you brought me back to reality with the last sentence. 😂👍
Last Edit: Feb 26, 2019 21:10:18 GMT -5 by NCHurricane: Quoted wrong post
The overall trend is crappy right now, the models seem to bounce back and forth between two waves and the timing of the cold getting here etc....its a mess.