If we get something I think it will be around Valentines Day....this isnt a terrible look....just need this to actually happen and not track straight OTS lol....high is strong and in a favorable spot for good east NC snow.
Last Edit: Feb 4, 2018 3:07:29 GMT -5 by downeastnc
Slowly but surely the longer range is improving second half of Feb and early March could be colder than normal.....finally seeing some snow chances pop back up, this is a nice little over running event....I think at this point most of us would take a 3-4" event and be happy.
Last Edit: Feb 8, 2018 21:29:49 GMT -5 by downeastnc
Slowly but surely the longer range is improving...
The model updates are much appreciated.
I will admit I am surprised a bit by how warm Feb is, pretty much every index is looking cold but the pac jet is not playing nice so everything is zonal and progressive.....there is some signs of blocking later this month but it could be to little to late....probably will end up BN in March but by then BN is usually to warm for snow but it will crush the beginning of severe season with days of 42 and drizzle.....
Well looks like winter is over, nothing in any guidance suggest it will even get below freezing much less snow the next 2-3 weeks and well after that its nigh impossible to get anything frozen around here unless its hail.....I am sure though that we wont keep this pattern into spring so we can have a for real severe season....nope its gonna do like it has the last decade it seems and go -NAO mid March so we get cool and drizzly weather till early May....
Well looks like winter is over, nothing in any guidance suggest it will even get below freezing much less snow the next 2-3 weeks and well after that its nigh impossible to get anything frozen around here unless its hail.....I am sure though that we wont keep this pattern into spring so we can have a for real severe season....nope its gonna do like it has the last decade it seems and go -NAO mid March so we get cool and drizzly weather till early May....
Exactly, we will probably see the NAO flip in March, too late for snow but right in time for severe weather season to get ruined by CAD after CAD event... on the bright side next winter is setting up to be epic. We should be in a weak Nino state per climate models, are getting into a solar minimum that is even cooler than the Marauder Minimum from the 1700s so things should start trending colder the next 20-30 years as that takes over.
Well looks like winter is over, nothing in any guidance suggest it will even get below freezing much less snow the next 2-3 weeks and well after that its nigh impossible to get anything frozen around here unless its hail.....I am sure though that we wont keep this pattern into spring so we can have a for real severe season....nope its gonna do like it has the last decade it seems and go -NAO mid March so we get cool and drizzly weather till early May....
Exactly, we will probably see the NAO flip in March, too late for snow but right in time for severe weather season to get ruined by CAD after CAD event... on the bright side next winter is setting up to be epic. We should be in a weak Nino state per climate models, are getting into a solar minimum that is even cooler than the Marauder Minimum from the 1700s so things should start trending colder the next 20-30 years as that takes over.
This winter was a good one as well. Practically the whole state got at least one nice snowfall that surpassed normal snowfall for NC.
As far as severe goes no telling really. BUT we should be a weak la nina or neutral and that is encouraging. Hopefully we can get some storm tracks to put us on the business side of some frontal boundaries!
I'm pretty pumped about the next year+ of weather. As Tyler said we are exiting a scorching solar cycle and entering one of the coldest in over 200 years. IF we go into el nino territory late this fall this coming winter will be good.
Yeah but a month ago, word was we'd be settling into a second Arctic outbreak by now, rivaling the first. Yet here we are, Feb. 12, not even noon, and it's 72 degrees on my back porch -- no epic cold in sight
Let's not kid ourselves. Nobody knows what the month of March will bring, let alone next winter.
Yeah but a month ago, word was we'd be settling into a second Arctic outbreak by now, rivaling the first. Yet here we are, Feb. 12, not even noon, and it's 72 degrees on my back porch -- no epic cold in sight
Let's not kid ourselves. Nobody knows what the month of March will bring, let alone next winter.
2pm obs at pgv was 70 and the 3pm obs was 52.....quite the cold front
Well looks like winter is over, nothing in any guidance suggest it will even get below freezing much less snow the next 2-3 weeks and well after that its nigh impossible to get anything frozen around here unless its hail.....I am sure though that we wont keep this pattern into spring so we can have a for real severe season....nope its gonna do like it has the last decade it seems and go -NAO mid March so we get cool and drizzly weather till early May....
It will stay warm enough in the next 2 to 3 weeks to get all my fruit trees blooming by late Feb early March then cold will come down like an iron fist in mid March and do all my peaches and nectarines in for the 3rd year in a row.
Highs in the low 60's today followed by a couple of days in the 70's. It sure is nice to be able to work on Bandito (my 1993 FZJ80) in the driveway and listen to the Robin's singing. I have actually had Bluebirds showing up the last two weeks.
Just need a couple of nights of thunder boomers to make Spring come in right.