Hard to say really. If someone told you 3 weeks ago you would get almost a foot of snow and there would be temps below zero over parts of E NC would you have believed it? Lots of winter left to go so we just have to wait and see how the models handle the flow over the course of their runs. It may show a cool down or a warm in the long range but could easily shift as we approach that time frame.
Post by snowlover91 on Jan 10, 2018 18:12:26 GMT -5
Typical Nina pattern would suggest winter is done after January 15th with possibly a minor event in February, if we get lucky. Long range models hint at warmth before the pattern reloads end of January. Might have a 1-2 week window in early February for something.
Typical Nina pattern would suggest winter is done after January 15th with possibly a minor event in February, if we get lucky. Long range models hint at warmth before the pattern reloads end of January. Might have a 1-2 week window in early February for something.
Typical nina's don't deliver the goods like we had last week usually either. If the PNA can go strongly positive again then we could see plenty of cold the rest of winter.
Typical Nina pattern would suggest winter is done after January 15th with possibly a minor event in February, if we get lucky. Long range models hint at warmth before the pattern reloads end of January. Might have a 1-2 week window in early February for something.
Typical nina's don't deliver the goods like we had last week usually either. If the PNA can go strongly positive again then we could see plenty of cold the rest of winter.
Nina’s are historically active in the December to mid-January timeframe, some are duds and some have some really nice winter storms like we had this year. This also started out as an “east” based Nina which tends to be colder than a normal one with increased snow chances as well during that timeframe. Preston and I spent about 2 months researching all this out, there’s some solid stuff we came up with, might have to post it on here if I get some time!
Post by Fountainguy97 on Jan 11, 2018 8:56:59 GMT -5
Looks like a taste of spring the next 3 days. HRRRX and NAM pointing toward slightly increased chance of some thunderstorms and broken lines the next few days. Will be low cape high shear events with ML cape not exceeding 1000 but someone may hear some thunder rolling the next few days!
Post by downeastnc on Jan 11, 2018 20:32:45 GMT -5
Mid next week could be good for a hit the Euro had it today ( general 1-3" ) and other models hinted at it over the last few days, it is typical for these type of hits to not be well modeled until 3-4 days out.....overall I think we all see the ground covered by snow again this winter maybe even 2 or 3 times.....
Euro was a big hit in central NC we where on the eastern warm side so a rain to snow scenario for us....but so far there are no other models picking it up really....still the overall look is decent for something to happen.
EDit: I lied Navgem has it now too and it actually did pretty good with the last one, the GFS is always gonna be late to the party in these weak coastal lows that fire off in troughs like this....
Last Edit: Jan 12, 2018 8:28:44 GMT -5 by downeastnc
Euro was a big hit in central NC we where on the eastern warm side so a rain to snow scenario for us....but so far there are no other models picking it up really....still the overall look is decent for something to happen.
EDit: I lied Navgem has it now too and it actually did pretty good with the last one, the GFS is always gonna be late to the party in these weak coastal lows that fire off in troughs like this....
Correction: NAVGEM was only model to support NAM for days. It did astounding compared to globals
