Post by downeastnc on Jan 31, 2018 11:37:42 GMT -5
I doubt the models do much till the new pattern sets up, keeps everything very progressive so we get some cold but the wet and the cold are not in synch so a lot of meh....the 00Z last night did have two storms for us with snow but they were both 200 hrs + so yeah......the next storm this Sun/Mon looks wet for almost all of NC it will take a major change in the models for this to trend to the good for NC, well at least our part of NC, the mts and foothills might get a snow/ice to rain event as is and any shift SE would put them in another snowstorm.....
Last Edit: Jan 31, 2018 11:39:00 GMT -5 by downeastnc
Post by Fountainguy97 on Jan 31, 2018 11:41:22 GMT -5
yeah these in between pattern timeframes cause mayhem. Just gotta ride it out. once the pattern gets locked you will see storms pop up on a more consistent basis.
Bottom line is we have High pressures bringing cold and a storm path reasonably favorable over the next 2-3 weeks.
AS far as this storm early next week the CMC is much colder than GFS. And with the pattern so volatile i wont be surprised to see large changes outside 70 hours. This storm will be Raleigh west probably at best BUT it could setup the next system a few days later.. so tons of variables lol. We will likely have another fairly short warning with a storm threat just appearing 5 or less days out
Last Edit: Jan 31, 2018 11:44:04 GMT -5 by Fountainguy97
The issue is we got plenty of cold just no real block....but the models sucked at reading the big cold snap earlier too until maybe a week out....still the models right now are not nearly showing the kind of pattern we would expect if the indexes all behave as the models indicate.....so as it stands models are very progressive no blocking to lock in the cold.....not exactly filling me with the same level of glee I had a week ago....if we do go sustained cold it will be after Feb 8th....
Where it comes to boring weather, I MUCH prefer day after day after day of 90 degrees with the tiny chance of a thunderstorm. *This* stuff we're getting now is useless.
MJO in Phase 6 is at its highest reading since records started being kept in 1979. Unless we get some pretty drastic changes on the LR models by next Tuesday, you can stick a fork in this winter season.
The issue is we got plenty of cold just no real block....but the models sucked at reading the big cold snap earlier too until maybe a week out....still the models right now are not nearly showing the kind of pattern we would expect if the indexes all behave as the models indicate.....so as it stands models are very progressive no blocking to lock in the cold.....not exactly filling me with the same level of glee I had a week ago....if we do go sustained cold it will be after Feb 8th....
That's what I'm going to go with for now. Not going to give up till it's warm past the 15th.
The issue is we got plenty of cold just no real block....but the models sucked at reading the big cold snap earlier too until maybe a week out....still the models right now are not nearly showing the kind of pattern we would expect if the indexes all behave as the models indicate.....so as it stands models are very progressive no blocking to lock in the cold.....not exactly filling me with the same level of glee I had a week ago....if we do go sustained cold it will be after Feb 8th....
That's what I'm going to go with for now. Not going to give up till it's warm past the 15th.
Well the models have several big cold highs that drop down but they are progressive and dont dig that deep so the low tracks stay over or north of us so ultimately the only time we get the cold is after the storm for a few days of cold and clear before we go SW and warm up in front of the next storm ( pretty much the typical winter weather pattern for NC )....however if the pattern blocks up at all and the troughs sharpen up there could easily be a snowstorm hit the Carolinas and the models probably wont see it till 5-7 days out at best.....all we need is the flow to slow down a bit and let the storm tracks dig south of us....After Mar 15th I want warm and severe storms so we got 5 weeks or so to pull off another decent snow.
Last Edit: Feb 1, 2018 23:54:43 GMT -5 by downeastnc
The globals change every single run in the mid to long range.....totally different looks at H5 all the way down.....gonna be a app runner and lake cutter the next 7 days after that the models are all over the place...
I’m starting to think winter is probably over for us outside the mountains. Long range ensembles are not good and the euro weeklies were pretty warm from mid-February and later. Nina climo favors a increasingly warm month as the storm track lifts north and we see cutter after cutter.