Well 96L is now at 90% for development and it looks to have finally closed off a center. I suspect a TD or TS by 5pm Saturday isn't out of the question. Only agreement so far is that it goes through the lesser and then greater Antilles and ends up somewhere in the SW Atlantic. GFS is loopy as always. The 12z was a crushing hit for us, 18Z went off the coast for a Nova Scotia landfall and now 0z is a Florida/Georgia border landfall. Euro is running now so we will see what it shows but it will at least be another system to track for the next 10 days.
Euro basically brings it straight NNW from the islands and is looking like a sounds runner with landfall somewhere around lookout if you extrap the last plot.
First visible of the day show a system getting better organized quickly. Wouldn't be surprised to see this one named today and if the HWRF is right then some RI before it hits the islands.
Post by downeastnc on Sept 16, 2017 11:51:08 GMT -5
Current GFS ran a 929 cane into Emerald Isle....then right over Pitt Co, had it crawling as well would be epic surge with it.....obviously the pressure is probably to low, but this would still probably be a solid Cat 2/3.
Post by downeastnc on Sept 16, 2017 13:22:38 GMT -5
12Z GFS run would be a long duration event and even stronger than Irene basically 24+ hrs of gust 50+ mph or better with peak gust probably in the 90-100 mph range inland assuming a 120-125mph storm at landfall.
First set of model runs showing this solution and the NHC at 5pm said Jose gets caught up in the westerlies. If we see several more runs with this weird Jose handling solution then we can start to think Maria has an out. If not she will need to be watched closely.
Not sure what to make of the new GFS. Never seen two strong hurricanes in the western Atlantic one heading south the other heading north. Who knows what all that means.