Well not surprisingly the 2 storms both move off to the east and after tormenting the east coast with rough surf for a week or more. If Jose does that weird loop then Maria is out of here. If Jose doesn't then we need to watch her.
Post by snowlover91 on Sept 17, 2017 0:13:58 GMT -5
Euro has something similar except much weaker with Jose. It’s an interesting take for sure... but of course the GFS is way overdone with intensity as always.
Out to 168 the euro has a much weaker and rapidly dying Jose off the NJ coast. If the ridge fills back in the Maria has the chance to continue her NNW track.
Out to 168 the euro has a much weaker and rapidly dying Jose off the NJ coast. If the ridge fills back in the Maria has the chance to continue her NNW track.
That's exactly how the rest of the run panned out. The ridge filled in and she stayed NNW on a fran track right into Wrightsville beach.
And i'll add that the euro and ukie both show quite a bit of blocking and they both had Irma called pretty early on. Doesn't mean they will be right here but if theres two models to have on your side its those two.
Big shift west on the 06z gfs. Jose doesn't loop as deep to the south and she doesn't follow behind him. Gfs keeps him strong too which seems unlikely as the shear really takes a roll on jose.
Big shift west on the 06z gfs. Jose doesn't loop as deep to the south and she doesn't follow behind him. Gfs keeps him strong too which seems unlikely as the shear really takes a roll on jose.
Yeah GFS doesn’t make sense trying to strengthen it over the cold waters and it will likely loop back towards land or dissipate quickly. UK shows that now and if 12z Euro holds I expect other models will eventually catch on.
Ive given up on maria. gets down to 911 mb on GFS but a remnant nothing of Jose screws up everything.
I don’t buy the GFS idea of this hanging around so long, the Euro and UK solutions are much more plausible and even the GEFS has most of its members either dissipating Jose or kicking him OTS.
Ive given up on maria. gets down to 911 mb on GFS but a remnant nothing of Jose screws up everything.
I don’t buy the GFS idea of this hanging around so long, the Euro and UK solutions are much more plausible and even the GEFS has most of its members either dissipating Jose or kicking him OTS.
If he lingers or loops then Maria is going fishing. Lots rising on the future of Jose. His satellite appearance has changed to more of a comma head in the last few frames.
Post by downeastnc on Sept 17, 2017 21:11:24 GMT -5
Maris is gonna go boom, looks like she might shed some mass and spin up, will be a smaller cane if she does that, if she tries to spin up her entire circulation then there wont be to much RI but we will end up with a MASSIVE Cat 3 instead of a smaller intense Cat 4/5....either way Puerto Rico sweating it big time I bet.