Post by snowlover91 on Mar 1, 2016 11:07:17 GMT -5
Bring it on. If it's not going to be cold/snowy then bring on spring and warmer weather. With the transition from a strong El Niño to a La Niña it should be an active severe weather and hurricane season this year. Ron are you able to repost that data you and Steve had worked on about the tornadoes in NC and how it correlated to our hurricane season?
here are the basic numbers from the original post we haven't updated it, but Irene makes it 5 out of 6 for 30 or more tornados....also I think we are already at 13 confirmed for 2016 and its not even prime time so we are already getting up there count wise....I will do a thread with all this stuff in it on the Severe page but basically once we get over 14/15 tornados the years that had that many or more tornados have something like 70-75% TC landfall rates.....
A little more breakdown by the numbers:
Of the years where 30+ tornadoes were confirmed we have
1984 with 34 T's and Hurricane Diana 1996 with 31 T's and Bertha/Fran 1998 with 54 T's and Bonnie 2008 with 45 T's and Ernesto 2009 with 31 T's No storm
Thats 80% of those years with a subsequent landfall. The only year that didn't 2009 was a down year for the tropics with a well below avg of just 8 named storms.
Next group of numbers is 20-30 Tornadoes and that was one year only
1989 with 24 T's Hurricane Hugo
Next group 14-20 tornadoes
1991 with 17 T's No landfall(close call with bob) 1999 with 14 T's Dennis/Floyd 2000 with 19 T's No storm 2003 with 17 T's Isabel 2004 with 19 T's Charley 2006 with 18 T's Hanna
So thats 4 out of 6 years with landfalling storms.
Last Edit: Mar 1, 2016 19:49:48 GMT -5 by downeastnc
This is the GFS for the mid range and we better hope the high off the coast ( see the arrow) isnt going to be a staple over the summer.....in the short term a we get into March and April the high there can be very instrumental in severe weather and would mean a stormy spring if it is a bit further offshore which is typical as we move later into the spring...if it sets up and persist it also means a scorcher this summer....
Last Edit: Mar 3, 2016 23:55:41 GMT -5 by downeastnc
So whats the over/under on no more freezes this winter? There is nothing close to even frost hardly after tonight and Sunday night in the modeling thru March 20th...heck might tickle 80 a few times in that range as well...I will put out my weed/bug killer lawn treatment this weekend and start planning where to grow the tomatoes and peppers....might even start em from seed inside this weekend so they are ready to go by April. Will need the onion grass cut soon too lol, the Bermuda and Centipede are still dormant but not for long....
so we gonna have to work on that profanity filter.....grass, pass, etc
Last Edit: Mar 4, 2016 23:33:01 GMT -5 by snowlover91
So whats the over/under on no more freezes this winter? There is nothing close to even frost hardly after tonight and Sunday night in the modeling thru March 20th...heck might tickle 80 a few times in that range as well...I will put out my weed/bug killer lawn treatment this weekend and start planning where to grow the tomatoes and peppers....might even start em from seed inside this weekend so they are ready to go by April. Will need the onion gr*** cut soon too lol, the Bermuda and Centipede are still dormant but not for long....
so we gonna have to work on that profanity filter.....gr***, p***, etc
If I read the Pitt County chart right, we see our last freeze as late as March 15 90% of years. Last freeze waits as late as March 29 50% of years.
As for the profanity filter, I say once we get our two bible-college boys graduated, we get rid of the filter and all of us just start cussin'! Like we do pretty much everywhere else.
Post by snowlover91 on Mar 4, 2016 23:35:48 GMT -5
Profanity filter has been fixed With the warmups long range models are indicating we may not see another freeze and jump straight into the spring weather with temps in the 70s and 80s. The question for cane season and summer is, how long will the El Niño last? How quickly does La Niña take hold? It could be a hot summer if La Niña takes hold quickly and that's a bad thing... Would also significantly increase the tropical activity and the stats indicate this year could be rough both in the severe departments and with hurricanes.
Post by snowlover91 on Mar 5, 2016 12:09:14 GMT -5
I for one am glad we have 70s on the way this upcoming week. If it's not going to snow when it's cold, or do 33 and rain, then I say bring on spring! Should be active severe weather wise also.
After a warm end of the week there looks to be a return to a more seasonal pattern with a few wedgey days mixed in in the long range....no real severe threat either, though the lower MS valley might have a rough 2-3 days coming up...
Post by snowlover91 on Mar 6, 2016 16:26:39 GMT -5
This week for the most part should be dry with temps in the mid 70s, nothing extreme humidity wise either. The Euro ensembles indicate a few days may approach 80 then long range they mellow out to more of a zonal flow. Through the end of March it looks average to above average.
Going to be a quiet week, been awhile since we have not had anything weather related to talk about.....gotta wonder if last night was the last time we go below freezing until Oct/Nov......would love to get a early start on the tomato and pepper plants.
Last Edit: Mar 7, 2016 12:31:33 GMT -5 by downeastnc