models still sticking to a mcs for this evening. With the heat and humidity it could be good.
Yeah even SPC is mentioning it but they haven't pulled the trigger yet because they want to see how the daytime heating and mcv translates across the mountains. When the 4km nam and rgem both show an MCS forming it usually is a pretty good indication that will happen.
models still sticking to a mcs for this evening. With the heat and humidity it could be good.
Yeah even SPC is mentioning it but they haven't pulled the trigger yet because they want to see how the daytime heating and mcv translates across the mountains. When the 4km nam and rgem both show an MCS forming it usually is a pretty good indication that will happen.
Hrrr backing off the northern end of line at the 12z run. New run starting now.
Yeah even SPC is mentioning it but they haven't pulled the trigger yet because they want to see how the daytime heating and mcv translates across the mountains. When the 4km nam and rgem both show an MCS forming it usually is a pretty good indication that will happen.
Hrrr backing off the northern end of line at the 12z run. New run starting now.
Hrrr isn't showing much at all with weak instability. However I don't think it will be right as the instability is climbing quickly and we have plenty of sun also. The 4km nam has done a good job this year with highlighting potential severe weather and the rgem is also on board. Another wait and see where it has high bust potential either direction.
Hrrr backing off the northern end of line at the 12z run. New run starting now.
Hrrr isn't showing much at all with weak instability. However I don't think it will be right as the instability is climbing quickly and we have plenty of sun also. The 4km nam has done a good job this year with highlighting potential severe weather and the rgem is also on board. Another wait and see where it has high bust potential either direction.
Hrrr was King on tuesday when we only had a 20% and had a widespread almost 100% coverage.
Hi res models have generally been very good this year.
Hrrr isn't showing much at all with weak instability. However I don't think it will be right as the instability is climbing quickly and we have plenty of sun also. The 4km nam has done a good job this year with highlighting potential severe weather and the rgem is also on board. Another wait and see where it has high bust potential either direction.
Hrrr was King on tuesday when we only had a 20% and had a widespread almost 100% coverage.
Hi res models have generally been very good this year.
Yeah it did pretty good with that but it also has missed badly on other events this year. Last night when I checked the HRRR it showed a few scattered showers but nothing strong or severe. We already have 2 warned storms in NC and 3 in SC so looks like the 4km NAM is handling this one better.
Radar shows a group of three large cells over the Piedmont ... heading generally in our direction. This could be the start of that MCS. Perhaps wild here in a couple hours? Nice to have something of interest to track now - thanks for cluing me in.
Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin to slit throats. H.L. Mencken
Radar shows a group of three large cells over the Piedmont ... heading generally in our direction. This could be the start of that MCS. Perhaps wild here in a couple hours? Nice to have something of interest to track now - thanks for cluing me in.
They are hauling butt to the east so in the next hour we will get what we are gonna get from it. These fast moving lines can be good for some gust front action.
Unusual image on nexrad loop; five, east-west oriented strings of eastbound cell clusters stretching from S.C. to Va. tagging along behind the original three-cell cluster noted above. "Our" cluster is eastbound like a screaming banshee and I've a feeling it's only going to clip Greenville as it races by.
Here in southeast Greenville I expect to get run over by the northern side of this cluster but the for the moment this appears the weakest of the three. Good luck everyone!
Edit: Didn't get run over ... got only a tiny sprinkle here at the bottom of Greenville as I watched the big bad clouds slide by a stone's throw to the south. And so it goes.
SPC has most of the area in a slight risk for today. Models are highly variable as to what will happen. The 4km nam shows only an isolated storm or two while the HRRR develops a large amount of strong to severe storms by late this evening.
Post by snowlover91 on Jul 8, 2016 10:29:41 GMT -5
Lapse rates are also quite steep to our west and SPC mentions those stronger mid-level lapse rates will move into our area during the afternoon. With temps 95-100, a remnant mcv moving through, weak shear 20-30kts and steep lapse rates you have a combination for some intense storms developing.