Nasty storm just to my west. Supercell structure trying to take hold, looks like it will miss me south though.
Its starting to sort of roll to the right a little so I thought I might get lucky and it hold a due east heading but it is now south of due east movement.
It did the same thing right as it approached me here in Knightdale. The Preston (fountainguy97) and Tyler shield is firmly in place lol. Just to my south Garner got hammered judging by radar. Glad you at least saw a decent storm though!
Post by Fountainguy97 on May 4, 2016 23:19:31 GMT -5
yeah T&P shield in full force this week. Very unique setup tomorrow with the ULL moving through a cooler airmass.... could be some accumulations of hail if it sets up perfectly as ULL provides fuel for the storms.
Bozart, did you see anything interesting from that storm Tuesday night?
Today looks interesting with the cold air aloft with the ULL. These systems can do crazy things and all the models hint at a band of strong storms and heavy rain setting up from east of RDU to Rocky Mount then SE towards Goldsboro and Greenville. Accumulations of 2-3" of rain along with some hail with the storms is possible.
Post by snowlover91 on May 11, 2016 8:29:50 GMT -5
Marginal risk today for some strong storms, I suspect the ones that do form could be some nice hail producers with cooler air in the mid-levels and decent instability.
Post by snowlover91 on May 13, 2016 10:49:17 GMT -5
With all the clouds and light rain/mist around I don't think most of us will see any storms today. The 4km NAM shows a few isolated storms popping up on the extreme coastal locations but otherwise most of us inland will probably stay cloudy. Looks like it will get quite cool over the weekend with some lows in the mid 40s and highs in the mid to low 60s for a few days.
It'll be just like the HPC forecast for 3" of rain this week at your house Seriously though I don't see much to get excited about for severe chances, dynamics at this range don't look all that impressive.
It'll be just like the HPC forecast for 3" of rain this week at your house Seriously though I don't see much to get excited about for severe chances, dynamics at this range don't look all that impressive.
Nevertheless, SPC's new Day3 keeps us in a 30% enhanced area, and mentions tornadoes and "supercells as the dominant storm mode." Keeping one eye open.
Not going to hold out hope for this one though, will keep an eye on it but so far the dynamics I'm seeing don't look all that great. Only 2000 in CAPE and EHI is meager at around 2. Maybe the Euro is suggesting better indices, even the NAM is rather unimpressive looking for supercells and severe storms.
Post by snowlover91 on Jun 14, 2016 22:56:15 GMT -5
4km NAM and other models indicate an active afternoon Wednesday with some intense storms developing.. SPC isn't saying much so we might actually have a shot for some strong storms. We will see, something to keep an eye on.
Gonna be hot tomorrow and today. Any storms that do develop could be strong and close to severe with this much energy in the atmosphere. Worth keeping an eye out as the hrrr earlier had a small line of storms drop south over us this evening.