12z us saying apocalypse cancel. Gonna miss wide right back to yesterday's runs.
I expect small shifts like this back and forth the next several days. Remember initially models showed a GOM threat, then they shifted east to almost PR and a recurve south of Bermuda then adjusted way west to about where they are now. GFS ensembles scrape the coast.
Post by snowlover91 on Sept 28, 2016 13:51:16 GMT -5
Yeah Euro run is really strange through 192 completely different from its previous runs. I don't really buy the Euro though, the GFS/CMC combo seems to be doing better in regards to track. After 3-4 days I don't have much confidence in the models and would expect quite a few changes the next 3-4 days.
Post by downeastnc on Sept 28, 2016 16:27:33 GMT -5
The storm going OTS has always been the most realistic outcome, the timing and setup needed to get a east coast hit is pretty complicated and requires the storm to thread a needle timing wise.....
The storm going OTS has always been the most realistic outcome, the timing and setup needed to get a east coast hit is pretty complicated and requires the storm to thread a needle timing wise.....
Going OTS is not a likely solution at this time. You have the GFS ensembles and the OP run both scraping the OBX or making landfall. The CMC is just offshore but its ensembles are much further west with a South Florida landfall or NC landfall, a few even take it into the Gulf. The Euro who knows whats going on with it lol and its Ensembles are literally from Texas to Newfoundland so its pretty much clueless at this time. Also newest GFS is coming west as well. Whether this makes landfall in the US is hard to say at this point due to the variables but at this time most solutions lead to the OBX and coast at least getting some substantial winds and rain from this.
Post by snowlover91 on Sept 28, 2016 17:12:28 GMT -5
Right now I favor a blend of the GFS/CMC. The Euro has been clueless so far with this one and until it proves otherwise I'm not putting much weight to it. The 18z GFS is trending a little west so far through 120, probably a good 50-75 miles west. Ridging also looks a little better positioned too.
Post by snowlover91 on Sept 28, 2016 17:32:54 GMT -5
18z GFS scrapes the OBX with the center only 30-40 miles offshore. Another shift west like that at 00z tonight and we will be back to a landfall in NC.