Post by snowlover91 on Sept 27, 2016 23:44:16 GMT -5
I'm concerned about the flooding threat also if it does take a track like tonight's GFS run. Anywhere from 12-16" falls across Eastern NC. Areas like Windsor certainly can't handle that amount of water. Still a long ways out though at 180-200 hours before a potential landfall. The OTS solution seems less likely for now.
The thing to remember is that this is a 9 day forecast. The GFS is certainly consistent on bringing This near the coast so that bears watching. The angle of approach means a west or east shift could mean a clean miss or a further west landfall. We have an eternity in weather tine to watch this system.
Euro Op is staying with the theme of getting this storm to sharply turn and end up in the Bahamas as a big bad storm. Just gotta sit back and watch what the model consistency looks like. We will be sitting here in 5 days still looking out at another 3-5 days before the event depending on which model timing is more accurate. BIG difference between the euro and GFS timing.
Post by downeastnc on Sept 28, 2016 2:39:56 GMT -5
Yeah timing is a red flag one of the models is badly wrong on it, and I am betting we see the Euro speed up, it gets fast in the short term them slows down again in the long term, on the 00Z runs at the 216 hr panel the Euro in in the southern Bahamas, the GFS is landfalling NC, and the CMC is 250 miles SE of Cape Cod.....that's a heck of a spread for the same timeframe.
Post by downeastnc on Sept 28, 2016 6:09:53 GMT -5
Surprisingly little change in the 06Z GFS more a Irene track than a Bertha track.....still a good thump for eastern NC....the thing is a few miles east or west can change the effects you get a lot with these kind of tracks.
It's getting more interesting every day now isn't it. Looks to me like this morning's GFS has the thing running right over top of us. What a hoot that would be!
Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin to slit throats. H.L. Mencken
It's getting more interesting every day now isn't it. Looks to me like this morning's GFS has the thing running right over top of us. What a hoot that would be!
The 00Z run last night was rough, if it came to pass it would be a bad hit, the pay maps from Tropical Tidbits have hi res GFS that show it hitting MHX at 940 MB's the low res free maps I am about to post had 969MB either way its a solid cane with a large mature wind field and it would be a disaster for Emerald Isle...its also worst case for the Tar/Pamlico/Neuse river systems and it would also load the sound behind Emerald Isle with water and then as the center actually came it hte wind would suddenly go from the east to the south and blow all that water right into Morehead City etc...really its about as bad a track for a landfall for that area as there is. For us in Greenville its also pretty nasty that has us in the north and NE eyewall and most likely actually getting the calm of the eye. Easily winds gusting over hurricane force here, possibly even over 100 depending on whether that 940MB hi res pressure is legit that would put this in the 120 mph range IMO at landfall...... The 06Z ran is 50 miles east of this one pretty much exact same track as Irene.....it will of course change several more times and the storm could easily end up OTS or miss us to the right or even the left but the models do seem to be latching on to the up the coast scenario...
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Last Edit: Sept 28, 2016 7:35:18 GMT -5 by downeastnc
Post by snowlover91 on Sept 28, 2016 8:25:35 GMT -5
Hey Ron the high res pressure maps from the GFS are actually free, however you can only get them in a certain view. Select the GFS, western Atlantic, then click lower dynamics and select surface pressure and 10m wind option. That'll give you the high res pressure charts! Even the slower Euro would have a storm in the Bahamas that could likely impact our area. I think the Euro is too slow as even the UKMET is similar to the GFS and CMC. A blend of GFS and CMC is probably the best option for now. Btw CMC was the first model to show this impacting Haiti while other models sent this into GOM. CMC hasn't changed much in recent runs either just tiny shifts east or west.
Post by snowlover91 on Sept 28, 2016 8:26:54 GMT -5
My concern with the advertised GFS track is rainfall. The poor people in Windsor are just recovering from terrible flooding. IF that GFS track or a similar one verified Eastern NC could see 10-14" of rain.
Post by downeastnc on Sept 28, 2016 8:33:34 GMT -5
Well we all know the bulleye 10 day out rule......until the Euro speeds up its all a crap shoot if the CMC comes back west and the Euro speeds up then we might be in trouble.