Post by snowlover91 on Sept 26, 2016 23:41:05 GMT -5
GFS made a significant jump west. Instead of recurring near Bermuda it now brings it about midway between NC and Bermuda. TS force winds now scrape the OBX. Massive wind field as this moves further north.
Post by snowlover91 on Sept 26, 2016 23:44:14 GMT -5
Look at the surface TS winds as it moves north. They extend from just off the NC coast to Maine! Granted most of that wind is over water since this stays offshore but a shift even 200 miles west would bring much of that wind over land.
Post by downeastnc on Sept 27, 2016 0:00:27 GMT -5
Yeah screw you CMC......976 at this latitude isn't that strong Irene was 950 MB in Beaufort and 976 in Greenville and it was a 80-85 mph storm....if the CMC is right then this thing will never be half the hurricane Irene was in the Bahamas...
Last Edit: Sept 27, 2016 1:43:04 GMT -5 by downeastnc
Post by downeastnc on Sept 27, 2016 2:15:29 GMT -5
00Z Euro basically kills the thing, takes it over Jamaica then over the highest Mts on Cuba then sits inland over Cuba for 2 days......the Euro actually takes the pressure down 6-7 MB while over land but we all know two days with the center over land is no good for the storm. Its really looking good tonight and center is consolidating further north than the models form it at, theyhave the center down around 12-13N when it gets to the islands but it looks like it might be forming closer to 13-14N well east of the islands still....and it looks to be moving a touch N of west as well.
Last Edit: Sept 27, 2016 4:22:25 GMT -5 by downeastnc
Post by downeastnc on Sept 27, 2016 7:47:48 GMT -5
Maybe its just the way the storms are firing but to me it really looks like the llc is trying to form just SW of that big flare up around say 13N 52W and it looks to be moving N of due west. This would but it on north of most of the model runs which keep it around 12N through the islands....
Post by snowlover91 on Sept 27, 2016 14:13:09 GMT -5
Models right now seem to be indicating 97L entering the Bahamas then either recurving like the GFS shows or a threat to the NC coast like the CMC or Euro.
Post by downeastnc on Sept 27, 2016 16:49:43 GMT -5
The trough timing is the main difference run to run for these models and its the only real thing that matters IMO when it comes to where this storm goes....the storm also appears to me to be gaining latitude so its not going to be as deep in the Caribbean as some of the models have it I think...of course with no well defined center that can jump around thats not a definite, but best convection and rotation in the mid levels to my eye is already 13-14N most models had been taking the "center" through the islands over or south of Barbados which is just north of 13N...the more latitude it gains now the higher the chance the OTS solutions are right.
Last Edit: Sept 27, 2016 16:50:22 GMT -5 by downeastnc