Would not be surprised if it had a left turn with that big high north of it.
Agreed, I can't see the storm plowing straight north into a HP that strong and would tend to think it would shove the system more NW or NNW instead of due N. Still about 7 days away and many model flips ahead.
Would not be surprised if it had a left turn with that big high north of it.
Agreed, I can't see the storm plowing straight north into a HP that strong and would tend to think it would shove the system more NW or NNW instead of due N. Still about 7 days away and many model flips ahead.
Its not going to plow into the high its going to go around it, the trick is where is the high going to be.....and what is that ULL that is cutoff gonna do.....the models sadly wont get a good handle of them until later this weekend.....until then the models are gonna flip flop a lot.
Post by downeastnc on Sept 28, 2016 23:42:09 GMT -5
00Z GFS another miss 100 miles off Hatteras....this will probably be modeled to hit us a couple more times over the next few days as the models work out the complicated pattern....I give it a 20% chance of the center crossing over any part of NC, and a 5% chance that the inner core comes to MBY.....
00Z GFS another miss 100 miles off Hatteras....this will probably be modeled to hit us a couple more times over the next few days as the models work out the complicated pattern....I give it a 20% chance of the center crossing over any part of NC, and a 5% chance that the inner core comes to MBY.....
Well within the margin for error this far out. Recon just found 1001mb extra pressure, waiting for vdm. Looking really good on satellite though with great outflow and excellent CDO forming.
Post by downeastnc on Sept 29, 2016 2:08:55 GMT -5
Meh Euro is way OTS...never gets closer thn 3-400 miles of the USA..... has it going NE from the southern Bahamas might be a major threat to Bermuda on that last Euro run....the trend for a OTS solution is growing...still a lot of model runs to go but if there isn't a few runs back west soon it might be over.....
Meh Euro is way OTS...never gets closer thn 3-400 miles of the USA..... has it going NE from the southern Bahamas might be a major threat to Bermuda on that last Euro run....the trend for a OTS solution is growing...still a lot of model runs to go but if there isn't a few runs back west soon it might be over.....
Lol the Euro has been everywhere with this storm and done terribly this year with track. I don't expect this to be any different and a CMC/GFS blend is your best bet at this point with the most weight on the GFS since it has higher verification scores. Latest GFS takes this right over the OBX. The spaghetti models are in solid agreement of a NC hit on the OBX of MHX area. No OTS solution except the crazy Euro.
Post by downeastnc on Sept 29, 2016 8:55:13 GMT -5
A lot can change between now and then but the trend the last 36 hrs or so is to a OTS track.....of course there are a lot of factors in play here so we shall see, I wont be surprised to see the GFS and CMC come back to a NC hit a few times over the next day or two. Hopefully the models will start to lock in by Sun/Mon that would be inside of 4-5 days if a landfall.
Post by snowlover91 on Sept 29, 2016 12:33:05 GMT -5
Tonight's 00z runs will have the upper air data incorporated into them, flight just took off. That should help with models coming into agreement. Could see some jumps in track tonight. GFS 12z run went west as did the CMC. GFS brings it onshore near MHX and the OBX.