Plane in the center now finding crazy high surface winds of 50-60mph in the "worst" of the storms....something isnt clicking in this system, it isnt very good at mixing down because the center was garbage until 6 hrs ago....it may have time to catch up but it better hurry.....
It's definitely catching up, dropsonde just measured 82mph surface winds and pressure is down to 983 officially now. Eyewall looks to be closing off and it looks good on IR too for a cat 1. A large amount of 80-85kt FL winds were recently found too.
Post by downeastnc on Sept 1, 2016 19:46:41 GMT -5
Highest surface wind I saw was 71....its still a marginal lopsided storm...the winds right on the center on the N and W side are 50-60 mph at best....still should be plenty windy enough to down trees especially on the S and E side.....
I found the 82 kinda far away from the center in the heaviest storms again thats not what you expect to see in a organized storm....
Last Edit: Sept 1, 2016 19:49:57 GMT -5 by downeastnc
Highest surface wind I saw was 71....its still a marginal lopsided storm...the winds right on the center on the N and W side are 50-60 mph at best....still should be plenty windy enough to down trees especially on the S and E side.....
I found the 82 kinda far away from the center in the heaviest storms again thats not what you expect to see in a organized storm....
The dropsonde of 82mph was dropped in the southern eyewall, I haven't seen any surface winds well away from the center that high. Recon having issues and haven't reported in about 30-40 mins. Radar presentation continues to improve. Strong cat 1 at landfall and very impressive IR appearance. HRRR did excellent forecasting the intensity in the short range and track, will be a good tool if we get one this year.
Post by snowlover91 on Sept 1, 2016 20:38:27 GMT -5
Looks like it is leveling off in intensity or beginning to weaken. Cloud tops finally beginning to warm and eye on IR is looking ragged. Just imagine if this thing had another 24-36 hours over water we could be looking at a cat 3 or 4 landfall.
Post by downeastnc on Sept 1, 2016 20:57:03 GMT -5
Some reporting stations on Wunderground in the north eyewall right on the water sustained at 40-50 gusting 60ish....doubt we see anywhere on land sustain 75 mph....if it does happen it will be over near Perry, FL..... Tallahassee might not even gust to hurricane force if the eyewall cant gust over 75 right on the beaches....
Post by downeastnc on Sept 1, 2016 21:11:43 GMT -5
First gust over 75 I have seen here in the absolute worst band right on the coast...still barely gusting to hurricane force winds in a hurricane is kinda weak sauce.
Latest Nam stinks.....this is above and beyond the 2.5" we got tonight.....
I got nil today, not even what I would consider a good sprinkle, and now this last run of the nam has a very sharp gradient across franklin county with me on the much drier side of it, we actually need the rain here now.
Post by Fountainguy97 on Sept 1, 2016 22:42:12 GMT -5
wow hermine has really ramped up as it is coming ashore. Some pretty big winds being reported radar indicating stuff getting close too 100mph probably more like 85-90 but still pretty incredible.
wow hermine has really ramped up as it is coming ashore. Some pretty big winds being reported radar indicating stuff getting close too 100mph probably more like 85-90 but still pretty incredible.
If it had 12 more hours over water it may have had a chance to hit a cat 2.
First gust over 75 I have seen here in the absolute worst band right on the coast...still barely gusting to hurricane force winds in a hurricane is kinda weak sauce.
The problem with many landfalling hurricanes is the lack of reliable observation points especially in sparely populated areas. This is a solid cat 1, recon supports it through FL winds and surface measurements also. Try not to be so pessimistic about things
Also of note, I was talking to a pro met on storm2k who mentioned that 4-8" should be easily obtained in NC tmrw and possibly much more. He's concerned about the moisture hitting the front and all the extra lift squeezing out this tropical moisture.
Post by snowlover91 on Sept 1, 2016 22:58:25 GMT -5
Wanted to share this with everyone, as it was making landfall a band in the NE eyewall had some incredible winds, 115.2mph. Now keep in mind this is at 3k feet approximately so surface winds would be much lower, probably 75-85 sustained. It's a good thing this didn't have another 12-18 hours over water.
First gust over 75 I have seen here in the absolute worst band right on the coast...still barely gusting to hurricane force winds in a hurricane is kinda weak sauce.
The problem with many landfalling hurricanes is the lack of reliable observation points especially in sparely populated areas. This is a solid cat 1, recon supports it through FL winds and surface measurements also. Try not to be so pessimistic about things
Also of note, I was talking to a pro met on storm2k who mentioned that 4-8" should be easily obtained in NC tmrw and possibly much more. He's concerned about the moisture hitting the front and all the extra lift squeezing out this tropical moisture.
Meh I see it as being a realist....when I see the storm is suppose to have sustained winds of 80 mph and the highest gust I can find is less than 80 well thats meh......GFS shifted east a bit and backed off the rain some....this is good.
Last Edit: Sept 1, 2016 23:24:29 GMT -5 by downeastnc