The center has to track left of us imo to get any kind of strong wind here. I really don't care to see the rain or at least this much of it this close to hunting season.
Keep in mind it will be undergoing extratropical characteristics this far north and phasing with energy. The wind field will expand as it does so. Instead of strong winds in the right front quad as a tropical system would have it'll be more balanced with strong winds well away from the center. Most models insist on sustained 30-40mph winds and gusts to 50-55 for a good chunk of the state.
Yeah I hear ya but if I had a nickel for every time I heard that and didnt get gust over 30-40.......it could very well happen but I will be shocked if PGV gets a gust over 50 mph
Post by snowlover91 on Sept 1, 2016 9:18:39 GMT -5
Just had a dropsonde from the Global Hawk that was near the center, pressure now down to 990. Usually I'm skeptical too but with the accelerated movement, phasing and then this strengthening right up to landfall I see this actually happening. As weak as the models were (995-1000mb at landfall) they all indicated sustained surface winds of 25-35 across the central and eastern portions of the state with gusts reaching up to 55mph inland.
Post by snowlover91 on Sept 1, 2016 10:38:34 GMT -5
Really wrapping convection around the S and SW side. Expect rapid pressure falls this afternoon once everything wraps around and the eye wall completes development. I'm thinking we have a shot at seeing 965-970 at landfall. It's also slowed down considerably which gives it more time over water.
Last Edit: Sept 1, 2016 10:39:01 GMT -5 by snowlover91
The center has to track left of us imo to get any kind of strong wind here. I really don't care to see the rain or at least this much of it this close to hunting season.
Keep in mind it will be undergoing extratropical characteristics this far north and phasing with energy. The wind field will expand as it does so. Instead of strong winds in the right front quad as a tropical system would have it'll be more balanced with strong winds well away from the center. Most models insist on sustained 30-40mph winds and gusts to 50-55 for a good chunk of the state.
This scenario has only happened 1 other time in my life. Hurricane danny in 1997. We had some gusts to tropical storm force as it blew back up over the state.
This setup CAN produce some good winds for us but it takes every piece falling perfectly into place. We really need this center to track right up I 95 for the best chance of strongest winds.
I am still more fascinated by the possibility of an unusual rain event than any wind potential...and I just noticed an interesting notation on WPC's "Excessive Rainfall Discussion" (which only goes through 12Z tomorrow morning) --
15Z UPDATE: HAVE INCLUDED AN ADDITIONAL "SLIGHT RISK" STRIPE FROM NORTHERN GA NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST NC...BASED ON THE MULTI-MODEL SIGNAL(INCLUDING THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE...SUCH AS THE 12Z HRRR) OF A PRESIDENTIAL RAIN EVENT POTENTIALLY SETTING UP AS THE TROPICAL MOISTURE (HIGHER PWS) BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC/FRONTAL ZONE.
I'm pretty sure by "presidential" they meant "precedential," but we get the idea. That's what I was talking about! :-)
WPC's updated QPF, hot off the press, now 7" for the coastal plain.
Bah...it does have the potential to be a "PRE" event, which is what got us with Floyd.....if PW's spike with a super efficient setup you get the silly rates we had in Floyd...this thing however is no Floyd but still IF and its a big IF everything came together just right there could 8-12" of rain and it could be widespread.....I would much rather see 50 mph gust than all that rain but you know which one we will get right....
if your super bored or super curious here is a paper on what qualifies as a "PRE" event etc
Post by snowlover91 on Sept 1, 2016 15:44:47 GMT -5
Recon making a pass into the center let's see what they find... Also of note is the high rainfall potential, someone will probably see a foot of rain from this. With the front basically draped across the area the tropical moisture will get forced up over this. If you believe the 12km NAM we could see rain starting early afternoon Friday and continuing well into Saturday.
That was extrapped from 700 mb the vortex was 986mb...and they didnt find any surface winds over 70 mph yet but they might on the west side....its really struggling to get its winds in line with its pressures....
I hope to get some heavy rain here out of it, in the past month I have gotten less than an inch of rain at my house, 5 miles in either direction has gotten good tstorms in the past week but not here.
Post by downeastnc on Sept 1, 2016 17:52:54 GMT -5
Plane in the center now finding crazy high surface winds of 50-60mph in the "worst" of the storms....something isnt clicking in this system, it isnt very good at mixing down because the center was garbage until 6 hrs ago....it may have time to catch up but it better hurry.....