Post by Fountainguy97 on Aug 22, 2016 9:04:13 GMT -5
Instead of an individual thread for 99L lets go with a much more generalized thread due to the multiple storms that are likely to interact at some point.
Latest GFS is back to a GOM storm which I am seeing as a good sign since we all know storms like to trend for a faster recurve.
CMC is the interesting one. It strengthens 99L and heads into the Bahamas but suddenly Fiona explodes and 99L is sucked into it before an landfall.
The EURO is not far away from the CMC but doesn't have 99L and FIona interacting, but still shows both storms continuing to organize.
Long story short we have a lot of talking to do about this setup. 90L will likely develop too fast and end up like Fiona.
Gaston and Hermine are not far away!
99L looks like it is doing a little better this morning. Lets see if she can hold the convection together. ]
Last Edit: Sept 2, 2016 8:56:16 GMT -5 by snowlover91
Post by snowlover91 on Aug 22, 2016 10:56:17 GMT -5
99L is the most interesting to me since it poses a potential US threat. Models are everywhere in regards to intensity and track, however an East Coast threat looks increasingly likely assuming this actually develops in the Caribbean. It's looking pretty good this morning with some banding occurring and recent ASCAT passes indicate it is close to closing off an LLC.
Post by snowlover91 on Aug 22, 2016 16:17:22 GMT -5
Of interest also is Fiona, models are everywhere with her but CMC has been hinting at her reintensifying and moving in from the east and stalling right along the OBX region. It's so far out though a lot can change with the dynamics. A complex scenario that models probably won't pick up on until a few days out.
99L is blowing up while everyone sleeps. Well, yea, it's not surprising to see nocturnal activity with developing systems but in this case I'd have to call it rather extreme, enough so that it's jumped from 20% to 60% in a blink.
Here at 2:20am, 99L is the dominant color feature in the Atlantic. Who would have guessed that! If this thing holds together during the day and gets some rotation ... Katy bar the door?
Ladies and gentlemen, please take your seats; the show is about to get under way!
Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin to slit throats. H.L. Mencken
Post by snowlover91 on Aug 23, 2016 1:53:01 GMT -5
Just logging on for the evening and you're right Tim, 99L is looking rather healthy tonight! DMAX is definitely doing its job and increased mid-level moisture is also helping out. Euro seems insistent on a central FL landfall then a crossover into the Gulf and 2nd landfall in the big bend area of FL with the remnants riding up I-95.
Low seems toy be forming in the southern end of the disturbance. This may have significant impacts to track you just never know. This would put it interacting more with the greater antilles on its path.
Post by snowlover91 on Aug 23, 2016 22:59:50 GMT -5
Model runs tonight will be important, as I understand it some of the recon data will be in the 00z runs which might help them pick up on future intensity and track of 99L. Especially the Euro I would watch the closest as it seems to do well in the 3-5 day range with disturbances. Right now the LLC seems to be consolidating and the MLC relocating north which should be enough to help it avoid PR. Also we are beginning to get in range of NAM and other short range models.
Post by Fountainguy97 on Aug 23, 2016 23:14:30 GMT -5
I have to admit 99L looks great right now. Probably a weak LLC closed off soon if not already. It needs to hold this convection into the day though. It seems the stronger the models had the storm the more likely of an east coast threat. The weaker it was it slipped into the GOM so this strengthening is leaning toward an east coast hit IMO.
Now has 99L clip Florida and pass by us offshore. And check out the GFS at 360 hrs, lol. Cat 3 on its way to Cat 4 East Coast hit? Why does that thing even run at such long range?
Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin to slit throats. H.L. Mencken
Post by snowlover91 on Aug 24, 2016 8:24:45 GMT -5
The thing I find interesting is that the GFS actually did pretty well in the long range. It indicated we would have a tropical storm or hurricane in the Bahamas or right off the East Coast and was pretty consistent about that for awhile. It did begin losing the solution as we got closer but I do find it interesting how it was the first model, along with the CMC, to indicate this.
Last Edit: Aug 24, 2016 8:25:26 GMT -5 by snowlover91