Post by snowlover91 on Aug 24, 2016 13:48:08 GMT -5
Euro made a substantial shift east with 99L, tracking it along the west coast of FL and up into the big bend region. It's actually not that far off from the GFS solution, just stronger and a little quicker.
Problem is it is in a strong recirve. It actually puts it near our coast as a cane. It's racing ene though and will be a miss. If this storm stays off the east coast of Florida then a climatological recurve looks likely.
Post by snowlover91 on Aug 24, 2016 16:21:55 GMT -5
Once 99L gets north of Hispaniola and the DR it should enter a much more favorable environment for development. Shear will quickly drop from 30-40kts to a more tolerable 10-20kts which should allow for slow development. Then once it makes it into the Bahamas it could be in a virtually shear free environment.
Last Edit: Aug 24, 2016 16:23:05 GMT -5 by snowlover91
Post by snowlover91 on Aug 24, 2016 23:05:38 GMT -5
As it exits the range of PR radar it appears there is some banding ongoing and maybe wrapping around the center. Impressive burst of convection and I expect it to slowly organize tomorrow and Friday with a TS likely by Saturday morning.
Post by snowlover91 on Aug 25, 2016 8:12:32 GMT -5
Two camps of models still, one camp is the Euro and HWRF which quickly intensify this into a hurricane in the GOM. Then you have the weaker GFS and NAVGEM that ride it up the east coast of FL as a weak TS. The NAM doesn't go out far enough to see the eventual track but it is intensifying this pretty quickly beginning Friday, that's the time where most models seem to begin ramping it up. We will see.
Post by snowlover91 on Aug 26, 2016 10:02:09 GMT -5
99L really organizing this morning as shear is finally dropping and the bath water down there is doing its job. Some places have water temps of 89-90F. With decreasing shear this could organize quickly...
Post by downeastnc on Aug 26, 2016 19:03:39 GMT -5
I would keep a eye on Fiona's rems, the CMC and Euro and NAMS all have some reflection of it and all bring it to or on the NC coast, none as organized type TC but that doesnt mean it cant be.....
Post by downeastnc on Aug 26, 2016 21:43:15 GMT -5
Its not much and its in a shear area but it could get into better conditions and with the block to the north its gonna get west quite a ways....the Nams dont keep it closed off very well but they do bring it to the NC coast by the end of the run...there is a lot of dry air in its way so that will be the limiting factor and it shouldn't ever get that strong but it could make TD. Looks pretty crappy tonight but the models hold on to it so we shall see.
From NHC
3. An area of disturbed weather, associated with a broad area of low pressure, has formed a couple of hundred miles south of Bermuda. Little motion is anticipated during the next two days, and a slow westward heading should begin thereafter. Development of this system, if any, is likely to be slow to occur due to this system's proximity to dry air. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
Post by snowlover91 on Aug 27, 2016 7:07:22 GMT -5
Yeah it already has an LLC from the looks of visible satellite, now all it needs to do is sustain some deep convection. I could see it organizing into a TD or weak TS over the next few days. Also it's looking like 99L might head into the Gulf. Let's hope it doesn't go towards Louisiana as they can't handle anymore rain right now.
Actually all the rivers in Louisiana are well back within their banks, and the area is well capable of handling a lot of rain normally, they got 20+ inches in less than 24 hrs which is why they flooded so badly, and well anywhere will flood if they get 20" in 24 hrs. If they get 5-10" from a cane they should be ok......
The area south of Bermuda could be interesting if it hangs on another 24-36 hrs as the ULL moves out of its way.....it also looks to be making a connection to deeper tropical moisture.....this loop shows that tropical connection building and the ULL very well..