Post by downeastnc on Aug 27, 2016 12:56:08 GMT -5
At least its not quiet, and there is at least a outside chance of us being either impacted by the storm to the east or the rems of the eventually GOM system that most models bring over us, and then the 12Z GFS run will get everyone talking since it brings a long tracker in over Miami then up Florida into the SE.....I would imagine over the next 7 days or so we see several runs with landfalls into the Carolinas as well the ridge is there and if this thing forms and that pattern holds it will be a real threat for the first landfalling major in a long time IMO.
Post by downeastnc on Aug 28, 2016 12:34:37 GMT -5
The 12Z GFS was pretty close to the 00Z Euro and the CMC was not that far off just more west with the landfall and turn......the 12Z Euro today if similar to the GFS could mean 99L ends up a threat to us after all as a solid tropical system not a rem low, so if TD8 gets in close, then 3-4 days later 99L comes along and then the monster they all have in 10 days or so is legit it may end up being a VERY busy couple of weeks in the SE....
Post by downeastnc on Aug 28, 2016 13:49:23 GMT -5
12Z Euro was a disaster for 99L doesnt do nothing with it, but its probably wrong the Euro kinda been sucking lately.....its looking better on sat loops and will be a TD/TS by this time tomorrow I bet.....GFS was very interesting with the evolution of 99L
Post by snowlover91 on Aug 28, 2016 14:35:02 GMT -5
Literally every model has a different solution so it's hard to know what to believe. HWRF has a major cane, Euro and GFS a weak TS but they both differ on track after it crosses FL. CMC also has a cane but is much further west and brings the remnants our way. UK is weak but rapidly intensifies it as it crosses Florida. Models have been everywhere.
Post by snowlover91 on Aug 28, 2016 15:40:14 GMT -5
Recon found a closed LLC and pressure of 1009mb. Should be upgraded at 5pm I would think. Winds of 30mph have been found and convection is persisting over or near the center.
The key is getting it back into the southwest atlantic. We have to have that to have a threat. Intensity can be hashed out later.
I think for us in NC we will see one of two things happen. Scenario one is a landfall further west near Pensacola. If this happens the remnants will move up across the Southeast and into this area like the CMC indicates. The other scenario is a track like the HWRF and Euro indicate across central FL and out into the Atlantic. If it's a strong system it will get swept towards Bermuda, if it's weak it MIGHT not get pulled OTS and linger along the coast. I don't think we see much from it other than rain, assuming it tracks further west.
Post by snowlover91 on Aug 29, 2016 8:21:19 GMT -5
Models are converging on the big bend region of FL as the landfall point with the storm crossing over and staying far enough away from NC to prevent any impact. A few do take it far enough west to bring Eastern NC some rain or like the GFS rebuild the ridge and push it near the area. I think a lot of this will depend on the strength of the system though. If it bombs like the GFDL shows into a major hurricane it might go a little more west and the remnants move right along the coast. All depends on the timing and strength of the ridge.
There have been so many junk named storms in recent years we're going to need a new landfill. I can't even remember the last time I got nervous about anything in the Atlantic. Maybe we should all move to the mountains and hope for snow, lol.
Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin to slit throats. H.L. Mencken
Too bad these tracks never pay off for the Inland areas. We needed this to get a couple hundreds miles east of Florida then drift nnw while it strengthened before coming inland.