Post by snowlover91 on Aug 31, 2016 22:21:20 GMT -5
Next recon is scheduled for 6:45am I believe and it should be interesting. As we head towards DMAX the thunderstorm coverage should continue to expand and intensify further over the center. Combine that with reduced shear (if models are correct) and warm SST's and you have a recipe for a hurricane.
Next recon is scheduled for 6:45am I believe and it should be interesting. As we head towards DMAX the thunderstorm coverage should continue to expand and intensify further over the center. Combine that with reduced shear (if models are correct) and warm SST's and you have a recipe for a hurricane.
People been saying that for DAYS now lol and no hurricane.....shear is a little less but the center is still exposed on 2 sides.....IF they classify it as a hurricane its gonna be one ugly lopsided hurricane I bet....
Big shift east in the GFS now has it hugging coastline with the center barely inland at Jacksonville then directly over Cape Hatteras....
Last Edit: Aug 31, 2016 22:52:54 GMT -5 by downeastnc
Next recon is scheduled for 6:45am I believe and it should be interesting. As we head towards DMAX the thunderstorm coverage should continue to expand and intensify further over the center. Combine that with reduced shear (if models are correct) and warm SST's and you have a recipe for a hurricane.
People been saying that for DAYS now lol and no hurricane.....shear is a little less but the center is still exposed on 2 sides.....IF they classify it as a hurricane its gonna be one ugly lopsided hurricane I bet....
Big shift east in the GFS now has it hugging coastline with the center barely inland at Jacksonville then directly over Cape Hatteras....
Well the past few mornings it has continued to improve and today it made significant progress. Recon indicates mlc and llc are pretty much stacked now. Winds went from 35 to 60mph and pressure dropped from 1006 to 998. It's not hard to believe that with DMAX this would acquire hurricane strength. I wouldn't put much stock in 00z runs as they initialized 3-5mb too high and that will have an effect on the track. I see this becoming much more symmetrical tomorrow with gradual intensification to about 75-85mph hurricane.
It really depends on the phasing as to whether this hugs our coast or not. If it does like the NAM indicates but sooner then it'll phase over NC and pull the low inland as it intensifies. If it phases later like the GFS and Euro suggest it'll meander around the NE somewhere. I have no clue what will happen with the phasing though, too many details that could affect the timing and ultimate track.
It needs to do it now, shear increase the further north it gets, if it cant stack up and organize now it sure isn't going to do it with 20-25 knts of shear over it tomorrow...the center continues to NOT wrap storms around it and has for hrs now....I guess I am skeptical I have seen these strung out eastern GOM messes before like Hurricane Gordon in 2000 so its gonna take a lot for this to be anything much, up this way hopefully the eastern track is correct.....don't need/want 4-6" of rain.
Are we tracking a tropical cyclone or a snow line? LOL!
If nothing else, this TD9/Hermine has been entertaining, and am sure it will continue to be so. My sis lives on the Delaware coast where the runs are flip-flopping between a beautiful sunny day and a nor'easter from ****. And this for a Labor Day weekend to boot!
Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin to slit throats. H.L. Mencken
Post by snowlover91 on Sept 1, 2016 6:40:33 GMT -5
Well as I thought the storm is underground some steady strengthening this morning. Pressure is dropping every time recon is out there, when they started it was 999 now it's down to 993 and dropping quickly. The shear is actually relaxing along the path of Hermine and is less than 10kts just to its north! The short range models like HRRR and NAM have this wrapping convection around the west and southwest side in the next 6-12 hours with strengthening occurring all the way to landfall. If it can manage to wrap convection around quickly then it would be a solid cane and maybe make a run for cat 2 status. Recon finding widespread 65-70kt FL winds already.
Post by snowlover91 on Sept 1, 2016 6:43:29 GMT -5
And right after I type this the Hurricane Hunters released the VDM and noted that an eye wall is already developing about 18nm across with strong banding.
And right after I type this the Hurricane Hunters released the VDM and noted that an eye wall is already developing about 18nm across with strong banding.
The center has to track left of us imo to get any kind of strong wind here. I really don't care to see the rain or at least this much of it this close to hunting season.
unfortunately we will probably get tons of rain.....I dont have much hope for any appreciable winds we just dont tend to get wind from anything that hits that far away....maybe some gust in the 30-40 range but thats pretty standard and nothing to even look out the window for.
And right after I type this the Hurricane Hunters released the VDM and noted that an eye wall is already developing about 18nm across with strong banding.
The center has to track left of us imo to get any kind of strong wind here. I really don't care to see the rain or at least this much of it this close to hunting season.
Keep in mind it will be undergoing extratropical characteristics this far north and phasing with energy. The wind field will expand as it does so. Instead of strong winds in the right front quad as a tropical system would have it'll be more balanced with strong winds well away from the center. Most models insist on sustained 30-40mph winds and gusts to 50-55 for a good chunk of the state.
On the floater loops you can see the cloud tops to the east of the center warming quickly, the storm just cant get it going....it has a very hybrid look to it as well, very comma shaped or kidney bean even.....not typical of a TC at all.
Run this loop and watch the clouds just east of the center warming not what you expect to see if it really is getting better organized...