I'm sure Bozart will have something to say about the HPC rainfall map
Take any WPC forecast total for your locality, then cut it in half, and cut it in half again. Based on that tried-and-true formula, I expect an inch. And that'll be fine.
Lol I knew you would come through A lot depends on the final track and when this phases too. As Steve pointed out if this does what the Euro indicates the OBX will be a mess.
Post by downeastnc on Aug 31, 2016 16:36:29 GMT -5
Hurricane hunters are finding the pressure still way up around 1004MB, this thing is in no hurry to strengthen, a lot of this has to do with its large size and it looks to be getting some impact on the NW side and is kind getting squeezed....I would be surprised if this thing ends up more than 70-80 mph at absolute best and I could see it staying 50-70 mph the entire time....its kind of elongated and usually those type systems have a hard time consolidating but Florida is gonna get way to much rain. Up this way a lot of things can and will be in play but if it takes the latest track it will be mostly tornado type threats and heavy rain but even that is hard to determine...depending on the front setup though a lot of different things can happen...I bet we see the track drift back east a bit.....
Post by downeastnc on Aug 31, 2016 18:44:39 GMT -5
Looks pretty rough honestly, HH are finding pressures down around 1000 MB but there appears to be several centers and the pressure falls are not sustainable without a true center to consolidate around, until that happens this thing will be disorganized.....18Z GFS has it at 1001MB at landfall so 990-1000 MB looks to be the average pressure for now but intensity forecast are useless really....but gien the overall setup and ragged appearance I suspect the weaker storm projections are more correct than the stronger ones. I think 70-80 mph is top end for this thing and that's if it gets its act together quickly overnight....NAMS/HRRR etc are useless for intensity they are always overdone but they do pretty good with track in the short term 24-36 hrs
This loop shows a pretty screwed up system it cant seem to tighten up its CoC enough to sustain storms there, as long as there are two different storm complexes this thing is gonna struggle...its just to elongated SW to NE. wish we could see a radar loop of the system to see what is going on....
Where is storm is has little to do with it, the setup here isn't that favorable, thus we get a trash system......still looks like crap to me the 50 mph bump is generous IMO given the storms inability to maintain storms over the center.....
I don't so much care about core organization. It's the tropical tap and potential interaction with a front in the region that has me intrigued. I like rain, and six inches is six inches -- doesn't matter to me if it comes with a puff of wind or not.
Post by Fountainguy97 on Aug 31, 2016 20:08:03 GMT -5
Current storm hunters finding 57knt winds and a lot of it.
If this links up and phases with the trough someone could see much more than 6inches. Cmc had over a foot for central nc when it had the storm phasing. 18z nam drops a very healthy 8-12 inch swath over nc.
Ok guys check out the 12z nam. The last 3 frames up to hour 84.... looks like the storm is slowing down and rotating to the precip field south west around the center.
And wow the euro is crazy!! It sits off the coast for like 5 straight days haha
Last Edit: Aug 31, 2016 20:14:09 GMT -5 by Fountainguy97
Current storm hunters finding 57knt winds and a lot of it.
If this links up and phases with the trough someone could see much more than 6inches. Cmc had over a foot for central nc when it had the storm phasing. 18z nam drops a very healthy 8-12 inch swath over nc.
Ok guys check out the 12z nam. The last 3 frames up to hour 84.... looks like the storm is slowing down and rotating to the precip field south west around the center.
And wow the euro is crazy!! It sits off the coast for like 5 straight days haha
That's FL winds though, at the surface not so much, there are a few 50knt SMRF at the surface but its really looking bad, its got some higher winds in storms clusters but it doesn't have a well defined center focusing that wind yet at all....
The red circle is the center so the storms are not right over the center......the X which is black and yellow for some reason is a old MLC that needs to go away its severely hampering the inflow from the south.....and the big red circle is dry air and generally crappy outflow.....the thing looks like a hot mess......theymay find 60 mph winds but they will be extremely localized and are not indicative of the overall health of the storm.
Current storm hunters finding 57knt winds and a lot of it.
If this links up and phases with the trough someone could see much more than 6inches. Cmc had over a foot for central nc when it had the storm phasing. 18z nam drops a very healthy 8-12 inch swath over nc.
Ok guys check out the 12z nam. The last 3 frames up to hour 84.... looks like the storm is slowing down and rotating to the precip field south west around the center.
And wow the euro is crazy!! It sits off the coast for like 5 straight days haha
That's FL winds though, at the surface not so much, there are a few 50knt SMRF at the surface but its really looking bad, its got some higher winds in storms clusters but it doesn't have a well defined center focusing that wind yet at all....
The red circle is the center so the storms are not right over the center......the X which is black and yellow for some reason is a old MLC that needs to go away its severely hampering the inflow from the south.....and the big red circle is dry air and generally crappy outflow.....the thing looks like a hot mess......theymay find 60 mph winds but they will be extremely localized and are not indicative of the overall health of the storm.
Oh yeah its a mess right now. But it has a good 24-36 hours to get its act together. I can see a 70-90mph storm making landfall over florida. The main question is how long does it stay over water. That will also impact our rain totals and wind as well. If we can get a phase we may end up with a day of 30-40mph winds and 8+of rain.
Post by downeastnc on Aug 31, 2016 21:49:23 GMT -5
I guess I see it the opposite the longer it doesn't get its act together the less likely that it is, once it starts moving the shear will increase, but you never know all it takes is 12 hrs of everything to line up for this to get to weak cane status I just don't see it happeningat this point, its also very likely to struggle on the W and NW side of the circ with the dry air etc...watch the 11pm track go east 50-75 miles at least.....
Post by downeastnc on Aug 31, 2016 22:01:33 GMT -5
NHC bumps it to 60 mph at 11 but there isn't much evidence for that, I suspect it has more to do with keeping the guard up in case it does get its act together...almost all winds are east of the center though so this thing still ugly...
Yeah NHC went up a notch even forecast a hurricane before landfall.
Its got a lot of work to do to get there IMO. Shear seems to have let up a bit if it can just get and maintain a cluster of storms evenly over the CoC it has a chance but it cant seem to do it.
Post by snowlover91 on Aug 31, 2016 22:18:46 GMT -5
NHC went up to 60 based on the widespread 55-57kt FL winds being found and SFMR readings supportive of 55 or 60mph depending on how much you trust the data and account for the lower readings. With a 998mb pressure it's reasonable to conclude it has the 60moh winds in the eastern or southeastern quad. It's also drifting north slowly as indicated. I think a solid 75-85mph cane looks possible, biggest question is the shear. Right now it has westerly shear over the center causing the developing CDO to displace to the east. If that shear does let up tomorrow morning as models indicate then it would ramp up fairly quickly.