Whats odd is when you run the HRRR on tropical tidbits it still has the color for 5.5 close to 6 inches through all of pitt county. Wonder why they are so different?
Yeah, the Raleigh office has started creeping down out of their tree:
TRENDS IN QPF SUGGEST RAINFALL TOTALS MAY BE A BUT LESS THAN PROJECTED, OR AT LEAST THE RATES MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING AND THIS WILL BE A LONG DRAWN OUT STEADY RAIN
Yesterday WPC had me getting 7", so applying the Bozart formula of cutting that in half, and in half again, my "objective" forecast comes out to 1.75". We'll see how I make out.
.65" event total so far -- that's combining yesterday and today -- so I'm on track to come closer than the pro's.
Whats odd is when you run the HRRR on tropical tidbits it still has the color for 5.5 close to 6 inches through all of pitt county. Wonder why they are so different?
Part of it could be since the tidbits site goes out to 18 hours and wxbell only 15 so those 3 extra hours account for more rain. Latest HRRR run is bumping up totals some and a little more NW.
Post by snowlover91 on Sept 2, 2016 11:40:29 GMT -5
Also of note the HRRR is expanding the wind field at the surface as this moves north for several reasons. First, the building HP to the north creates a stronger pressure gradient. Second the center moves partly over water and begins to reintensify. Last but not least the energy phasing in on the NW side aides in boosting the wind profiles. Verbatim this is show a wide swath of sustained 25-35mph winds with gusts in the 40-50mph range. Nothing crazy but still fun. This is 2am btw.
Post by snowlover91 on Sept 2, 2016 11:48:21 GMT -5
Here is a recent map of the winds showing the winds approaching TS force in gusts on the NW side. These are forecasted to gradually increase and this will be the area that affects areas like Greenville, Kinston, and Washington with those higher winds the HRRR is projecting.
Post by downeastnc on Sept 2, 2016 11:50:35 GMT -5
Not buying the wind to much, Charleston SC gusting to 40 and areas in the heaviest bands around the center are gusting to 30, so that should be about as good as we see here I think...maybe the jet streak will enhance it but usually those models over do the winds at the surface quite a bit....I could see the NE OBX getting hammered with some 45-55 mph gust after the center gets east of them though.....
Last Edit: Sept 2, 2016 11:55:35 GMT -5 by downeastnc
Looping radar…is that a significant line of convergence setting up from the Albemarle River down across southern Wake County? Will that band remain stationary, or shift?
Post by snowlover91 on Sept 3, 2016 10:38:53 GMT -5
The OBX are having a rough time seeing another station reporting sustained winds of 54 gusting to 74, and Duck earlier was reporting sustained in the mid 60s and gusting to 80mph! Pretty impressive imo and going to catch a lot of people off guard because I don't think many were expecting that.
Yesterday WPC had me getting 7", so applying the Bozart formula of cutting that in half, and in half again, my "objective" forecast comes out to 1.75". We'll see how I make out.
.65" event total so far -- that's combining yesterday and today -- so I'm on track to come closer than the pro's.
So, did I come closer than the pro's?
In this contest, my house is the only location that counts.
The precursor rains gave me .37" on Thursday, the main event gave 2.87" yesterday, and I recorded .75" since midnight today. Event total at my house: 3.99".
The Bozard Equation (basically quartering WPC's most hyped iteration) had predicted 1.75", and so busted low by a margin of 2.24".
It rained. It got windy for a little while late at night. Looks like Greenville does tropical cyclones like it does snowstorms, lol.
Okay, wasn't expecting much ... but then that seems the pattern here. This area seems a great place for people to avoid wild weather. Get me outta here! LOL!
Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin to slit throats. H.L. Mencken
It rained. It got windy for a little while late at night. Looks like Greenville does tropical cyclones like it does snowstorms, lol.
Okay, wasn't expecting much ... but then that seems the pattern here. This area seems a great place for people to avoid wild weather. Get me outta here! LOL!
I would consider last night a win for us. We were several hundred miles north of the land fall point and it held enough wind energy to down a few trees and we got several inches of rain. Greenvilles an inland location so any kind of tropical system like last night is good.