Post by Fountainguy97 on Aug 1, 2016 8:24:01 GMT -5
Working into August it's time to start looking out to sea. Models are beginning to hint at a lot of tropical development, albeit most of it moves into the gulf, and with ocean temps absolutely roasting right now any system will have plenty of energy to work with.
Closer to home we are entering a stormier pattern. Unfortunately I don't see any real severe threats happening because we lack any real "driving" factor to support and sustain storms. But these average summer storms can peak at severe levels for brief moments.
It also looks like this heat will slowly begin to deteriorate as the High pressures in place begin to lose ground. There will still be plenty of 94+ days but we will begin to see 85+ scattered in there as the high pressures exit the area only to rebuild 2 days later.
Last Edit: Aug 1, 2016 8:25:40 GMT -5 by Fountainguy97
Post by snowlover91 on Aug 1, 2016 10:18:32 GMT -5
Looking forward to a break in the heat and humidity. I feel it will be short lived though as the ridge will probably flex its muscles in mid to late August and September. Tropical development should begin ramping up with climo favoring it and a weak La NiƱa also. With the track there will likely be a lot of long track systems and depending on cold front timing the best threats would probably be Florida into the Gulf with a possible East Coast threat if we get the right timing.
Pretty sure the 4knam has the precip totals over the next 60 hours off a lot since it is showing upwards of 5+ inches with some places along the coast way over that
Post by snowlover91 on Aug 2, 2016 15:47:40 GMT -5
Had a storm backbuild over us here at work in Knightdale. Sharp lightning and some gusty winds but nothing severe. Now that the tropics are picking up we will have to see if we can get some long track storms.
That was quite a nice line of convection that eased down from the north today, crossing eastern NC. The Fountain Store picked up all of .06". And at my house:
Lol and Bozart's luck continues! I just moved over the weekend so I'm actually fairly close to you now, just outside of Elm City near Macclesfield. Radar showed my house was missed once again but at work in Knightdale we had a cell backbuild over us with some sharp bolts nearby.
It takes quite a bit of rain for us to get localized flooding here in the east, it either has to have been really wet for a exteneded period, or dump 3-6" in a few hr, really when you look at it this has been the wettest yer and a half here EVER ( Bozarts yards exempt of course) for PGV. I'm not saying there wont be isolated spots that flood if we get 4-6" in 2-3 hrs but it wont be nothing like what happens west or north of here where the hills making a big difference, eastern NC can just handled a lot of rain....
Last year PGV missed setting the all time wettest year record by less than a 1" and so far this year are at 41" which is 12" above normal....when combined with last years 69" that puts PGV at 110" of rain in the last 1.5 yrs so thats almost 3 yrs worth of rain in 1.5 yrs.
I think the Fountain Weather Machine has been running unsupervised, with only one or two brief interruptions, for something like a month now. It's weird. I can't account for it.
Post by snowlover91 on Aug 6, 2016 14:57:02 GMT -5
The sandy soil in ENC is probably the primary reason flooding isn't a huge deal, and flat terrain. I know with some of the storms though a quick 2-4" can cause some major issues for the low lying and swampy areas, like the storms that trained up near Tarboro a few weeks ago. Dropped 6-8" of rain in a small area over 2 hours.
Looks like we are entering a cooler and stormier pattern starting Sunday. It'll be nice not having the 95+ degree days and 80 degree dewpoints. Btw I've moved now to the Elm City area.
Training convection, arrayed directly along the E/W front, is slowly outflowing its way southward, leaving me high and dry so far. So I might get rooked again. Looks good for Kinston, though.