The Fv3 still coming in bigger totals even on the kuchera. This is a critical storm for this model as it's set to take over for the gfs soon. Has pitt county with 3 to 5 inches and climbing as you head west with 11 inches in Wilson county.
No i dont believe its accurate as it's all by itself but it's going to take a credibility hit at the wrong time.
Euro came in snowier for pitt county will the entire county over 4 inches. Seems they are suggesting a faster flatter storm which would be better for us eastern folks.
Still sounds like, at best, a few (a *very* few) slushy inches of junk, followed by a long, cold rain. OTOH, that's not bad for early December in these-here parts. Imagine if we got such a set-up in mid-January -- which we just may.
Still sounds like, at best, a few (a *very* few) slushy inches of junk, followed by a long, cold rain. OTOH, that's not bad for early December in these-here parts. Imagine if we got such a set-up in mid-January -- which we just may.
MHX gonna go with a WWA for 1-2 inches with the slightest possibility for 4-5 per some of the latest models. Finally a decent disco for this event.
...High pressure to the north will strengthen tonight, and help funnel some colder air into NC. This will coincide with heavier precip moving into, and over the whole area from tonight through most of Sunday. This combination will allow rain to change to snow early Sunday morning across the western portion of the coastal plain. It is becoming more likely that snow will accumulate up to a couple inches in this area which includes the cities of Kinston, Greenville, and Williamston. Right now, expect mostly 1-2 inches of accumulation, however if these locations stay colder for longer, as indicated in the latest ECMWF, NSSL WRF, and SPC HREF, up to 4 or 5 inches could fall over portions of these counties. We will initiate a winter weather advisory for these areas, and reevaluate the latest model trends through the day today. As the low and mid levels warm above freezing during the early afternoon, the snow or rain/snow mix will turn to rain.
With surface temps near or above freezing accumulations will be tough to come by without decent rates......add to that a ton of rain after the switch over and this will be a meh event unless something really changes.....still I guess it s not to bad given the Dec 9th timeframe etc.....still hate we may have wasted a setup like this now, a month from now and this would be one of the all time greatest storms state wide....
The high is strong and located in a good spot need it to slow down, that would possibly keep the track further S, the reasons the NAMS kill us is they track the low right on/along the coast thats always a rain track for us.....need it to stay south and more east....doubt they are that off on low track in this range though. Just once I would like a storm to bust in our favor...in a big way I am not talking getting a few inches when its not suppose to, I mean getting a foot when we expect 1-2" of slop like this.....
The Surface Wetbulb freezing line is way up in Virginia. We're going to need that to improve.
Yeah that high will build in tonight that should do the trick, all the models agree we get some snow/sleet, heck the Euro last night gave all of Pitt Co 4-6', the FV-3 that just ran gives us 1-2" snow and about 6" of sleet.....though surface temps are mid 30's so accumulations would be a struggle.....it could literally sleet hard for 5-6 hrs and not hardly accumulate at all tomorrow morning other than on elevated surfaces....the NAM's are brutal with the warm nose and even the Triad gets screwed on the NAM's...well if you call thinking you had a shot at 20" yesterday and now its 4-8" with sleet in that total getting screwed.
Hard sleet will accumulate readily, even on a warm ground, if that's what we get. I do believe in NAM warm noses, and must admit I still smell one of those patented 34-degree cold-rain jobs around my nape o' the neck.
There is zero doubt that this is primarily going to be a ran maker here. There is a window late tonight into late morning Sunday for a changeover to some potentially heavy snow/sleet for 6-8 hrs...again though temps at the surface will struggle to get below 34-35 much less freezing and the wet ground is going to hamper any real accumulations....6" might fall but only a few inches might actually accumulate on grass and elevated surfaces....now if somehow we can get down to 31-32 and or keep the profile cold enough longer then who knows what can happen. The upside is there is only one way this can really bust for us and that's to the good....anything over 1" of mix on grass or elevated surfaces is a win for us....
Last Edit: Dec 8, 2018 13:36:41 GMT -5 by downeastnc
If I see any snow at all I'll be happy enough. After all, this is the South and it isn't really winter yet, is it?
Just imagine we get an inch and it turns out to be our biggest snow of winter. Would that be a hoot or what? LOL, yea, I know you want to shoot me for such a horrible, evil thought but I still don't trust winters down here. Perhaps it's still a "lack of snow winter hangover" from all those years in Wilmington. On the other hand, maybe this is a good sign for what lies ahead ... gotta think positive!
Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin to slit throats. H.L. Mencken
The cold just isnt there, its all going to come from the top down.....I expect it to be snowing around dawn, I work nights so I will be up, I will be happy to drive home in heavy snow in the morning.....even if it isnt sticking well. Looks like the NW corner of the state from Winston NW is gonna get smoked.....