Well the 18Z GFS tonight showed a significant shift SE with the low track and would shifted the heavy snow east...think Carolina Crusher versus the big hit out west in 2004.....Pitt Co gets 3-5" but that's including mixing issues.....still a big ramp up from nothing so a thread to track the storm seems warranted given the 7 dayish time frame.....
Last Edit: Dec 2, 2018 18:10:33 GMT -5 by downeastnc
Chime in, all you model warriors! I can't ask for a my-back-yard forecast on the "big board" (I haven't shown my face there in years), but surely someone here can take an educated early guess.
Personally, I smell a chilly rain here at Bozart Farm, and snow in the mountains. But what do I know?
Chime in, all you model warriors! I can't ask for a my-back-yard forecast on the "big board" (I haven't shown my face there in years), but surely someone here can take an educated early guess.
Personally, I smell a chilly rain here at Bozart Farm, and snow in the mountains. But what do I know?
Still looks like a typical CAD storm. That means west of Raleigh is snow. Raleigh area is ice. And east is rain. Models locking in and appear to jackpot west NC up into VA.
Setup and overall pattern could follow this.
Last Edit: Dec 3, 2018 20:35:27 GMT -5 by Fountainguy97
Chime in, all you model warriors! I can't ask for a my-back-yard forecast on the "big board" (I haven't shown my face there in years), but surely someone here can take an educated early guess.
Personally, I smell a chilly rain here at Bozart Farm, and snow in the mountains. But what do I know?
I’d say possible brief burst of snow/sleet then a very very quick change to mid/upper 30s and abt 1.5 inches of rain.
Chime in, all you model warriors! I can't ask for a my-back-yard forecast on the "big board" (I haven't shown my face there in years), but surely someone here can take an educated early guess.
Personally, I smell a chilly rain here at Bozart Farm, and snow in the mountains. But what do I know?
Its possible this ends up a bit wintery on the front end but it sure looks like we are gonna get rain.......maybe way west like NW foothills cash in but we need a flatter less captured system to get any real payoff this far east.
Thanks, fellas. Maybe in a day or two things will look different.
With the EPS mean snowfall total for us at 0 it's hard to get behind this one. Really only the fv3 is showing any wintry precip for us. This is all before any NW trends even happen. So unless this system starts trending south and colder then we are in for a heavy rain event.
I think I will see a wintery mix here, just hope that it doesn't trend colder with the bl, would rather see a few hours of snow and 32 to 33 and turn into rain then a few hours of snow at 28 and turn into freezing rain.
A lot of crazy clown maps......setting up for disappointment I fear.....the cold air is iffy, anda really strong low means the warm nose gets further west.....need to see the models really trend stronger with cold, then it needs to lock in more and not lift out so the low track is forced more easterly for anyone east of I 77 to have a shot at a major hit IMO....
Really its close to being a big deal......on the FV3 the SLP reforms right on the NC coast at HR 126.....if it doesnt do that and keeps moving ENE then the better totals would extend well into east central NC.....