FV3 colder and has R/S line further SE than I have seen it yet...at least a decent front end thump looking possible but if the low tracks up the coast we will mix and switch to sleet then rain....
Just not gonna be cold enough here, track is wrong need it more offshore it gets to close.....classic setup for a western NC monster hit......what we need is a late shift in the track to more offshore....but a track shifts only happen to us when the storm is forecast to crush us....
Just not gonna be cold enough here, track is wrong need it more offshore it gets to close.....classic setup for a western NC monster hit......what we need is a late shift in the track to more offshore....but a track shifts only happen to us when the storm is forecast to crush us....
So I understand this morning's FV 3 and European are giving some of us chickens Down East a decent taste of frozen -- at my house, maybe half of storm-total QPF as frozen. Interesting.
So I understand this morning's FV 3 and European are giving some of us chickens Down East a decent taste of frozen -- at my house, maybe half of storm-total QPF as frozen. Interesting.
Yeah but the profile sucks, could be 35 and sleet/rain for hrs depending on what model you look at.....overnight tonight and into tomorrow the hi res models will get into better range and we will have a better idea.....I still think we are going to be 60-80% plain ole cold rain here unless the models trend south with the low and put the high in the perfect spot......
The 18Z Nam has them on suicide watch over on the big board.....
Last Edit: Dec 6, 2018 16:34:49 GMT -5 by downeastnc
I swear, but over at the big board, they live and die with each run. It drives me batty to see them go bi-polar like an ex-girlfriend. If it (the LP) is more suppressed and the HP is a tick stronger (plus the LP is farther offshore) then I like our chances to pick up a nice little snowfall. If not, we will get rain and that’s what I’ve been expecting the whole time. Means I don’t get disappointed.
could end up being a sleet storm for many, even down our way could see several inches of sleet but the bigger snow totals are disappearing from the model runs.....GFS gives us roughly 1" of snow and 2" of sleet. I will say this though overall the trend for the track of the low is one that would normally be very exciting for all of NC....there is a chance as we get inside of 24 hrs for this to trend colder. The global models tracks are all further south and OTS versus the Hi res which keep it close on the coast and moving more NE......if the Hi Res run tracks similar to the GFS/Euro/Ukmet then I would think they would be colder.....a lot of storms have trended away from us in the last 24 hrs....to many to even count so it would be nice to see one do the opposite....
Obviously we want the latest FV3 to be right on p types...now we just need the surface colder though so it all sticks....as is its still 33-35 at the surface
click to run GIF
Last Edit: Dec 7, 2018 12:34:35 GMT -5 by downeastnc
Going to come down to rates.....850's will be good enough for a lot of the event, as long as we get heavy precip it should be all snow or sleet....this should cool the surface to around 31-32 but as soon as it lightens up temps will bump up to the mid 30's.....still there could be a window Sunday morningish were we get at least 3-6 hrs of heavy frozen precip in Pitt Co....
MHX reflects this in their disco....again a few degrees one way or the other could be HUGE for us.....this could easily end up a big hit for us but typically we rarely trend to a big hit here....
Thermal profiles continue to favor a period of mixed precipitation late Saturday night/early Sunday morning, changing to all snow through late morning Sunday before warmer air changes all precipitation to rain by early Sunday afternoon. A quick burst of an inch of snow is quite possible over our NW CWA including Martin, Pitt and Greene Counties.
looks like right now I got a 50/50 shot of getting a foot of snow or about 3/4" of freezing rain after a couple inches of snow and sleet mix.
Yea you sit in the best spot to see a solid wintry event. Jeff is in the worst spot. He could get several inches or just sleet and rain. Tough storm for forcasters as usual.