Post by downeastnc on Mar 10, 2018 15:58:42 GMT -5
Well Hi Res models show enough cold aloft to switch us over to a extended period of snow Monday...the issue is BL temps which will be mid 30's at best probably so even if it dumps snow accumulation will be only possible in the heaviest of burst.....so these maps showing higher totals are way overdone we are talking maybe a slushy inch piling up if we can get a few hrs of heavier rates......
The 12K is obviously over doing though it does take us to 32-33 at the surface during the heaviest snow
The 3k Nam is much more realistic and this would be best case where we had 2-3 hrs of SN+ with temps right at 32 and then it would be elevated and grassy surfaces only..
Post by downeastnc on Mar 10, 2018 22:01:23 GMT -5
Yeah its gonna be tough to get anything to stick given the temps at the surface, but if we get 32-34 with biscuits falling hard it might be enough to accumulate a bit still it will be cool to see if it happens.
Post by snowlover91 on Mar 11, 2018 20:31:21 GMT -5
Overall I’m expecting mostly rain but a brief 1-3 hour window to see some nice flakes flying on the backside of the storm, assuming the heavy band materializes like the models show.
Post by downeastnc on Mar 11, 2018 21:31:15 GMT -5
Central and east central NC actually could get hit pretty hard all things considered.....it could be the perfect storm with the coastal being far enough OTS to only amp up what is a really powerful ULL.....this is the kind of system that gives you 4" of Carolina Concrete when you only expect a changeover with a sloppy inch if your lucky. I wouldnt get my expectations up for anything more than a few hrs of big fatties.....but if it plays out just right we could see a 1-2 hr band with seriously insane 1-3" a hr rates....back in the mid 90's we had that happen, it was drizzle and light rain all day and a heavier "deform" band formed over RDU and I-95 and as it headed east it went yellow and orange on radar and there was a 50-70 mile long N/S band of intense that snow. As the rates picked up it started to mix in mangled flakes and the temp dropped from 40 to 32-33 and the bottom fell out, flakes as big as your palm dumped on us for about a hr or so and the rates where heavy.....it even covered the roads which were wet and 40 when it started. Had 2-3" on the grass and cars maybe 1-2" in the yard, all in around 1-1.5 hrs. Even thundered a few times, and a hr after it stopped it was 38-40 and all the snow had melted. The only areas that saw the snow where in the heavier band 30 miles north or south of Greenville saw nothing, this was also in the first half of March.
Last Edit: Mar 11, 2018 21:32:13 GMT -5 by downeastnc
Sounds like we have a biscuit blizzard potential for tonight. Lots of places changing over already out west of here. Morehead sounds pretty bullish with the strength of the band tonight.
Then late this afternoon and this evening colder air will begin to filter into the region. This will coincide with the deformation zone of the developing low moving over the area producing strong lift. At this point the models increase precipitation amounts significantly. The strong lift will occur over the Dendrite Growth Zone producing the snow crystals needed for snow production. The NAM soundings indicate an isothermal thermal profile developing around 00Z with rain changing over to snow. The 3km NAM is also indicating a banded almost convective look to the precipitation during this time which would support the concept of heavy precipitation/dynamical cooling and a change over scenario. The SREF plume diagrams are indicating mean snowfall accumulations around 1 inch across most of the area. Temperatures are likely to be just above freezing though, which will cause most of the snow to melt except for grassy surfaces where a minor accumulation is possible.
Post by downeastnc on Mar 12, 2018 11:04:47 GMT -5
Yeah we can easily end up with 2-3" or more in this setup, most models have SN/SN+ over us for 3-4 hrs I imagine rates will be near 1" or more a hr...temps also should be at or below freezing so it will even cover the roads if the flakes and rates are good enough.....sounds like its cold enough to be sleet instead of rain outside the best rates out west so that will just make the roads worse.
Be pretty nuts to get anything more than 1".....getting more than a inch of snow in March has happened only a handful of times in eastern NC in my life.
Last Edit: Mar 12, 2018 11:21:24 GMT -5 by downeastnc
Post by downeastnc on Mar 12, 2018 13:05:11 GMT -5
Yeah the band is forming up now and its potent......going to see a widespread 1-3" event for the northern 2/3 of NC all the way to the coast probably....
Yeah the band is forming up now and its potent......going to see a widespread 1-3" event for the northern 2/3 of NC all the way to the coast probably....
That is a spectacular band forming. And water vapor satellite shows the bowling ball just about where we'd want it, too.