Wow. I've learned something. So where do I get individual soundings for different cities?
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On tropical tidbits you can click on the map where you want to get the sounding and it gives you the sounding of the closest reporting station I believe.
Thats a nice sounding for all snow but notice the green line at about the 700mb level starts to get further from the red line? That shows there is some dry air in the snow growth region so the snowfall rates wouldn’t be very heavy with that setup, but it is definitely all snow as everything is left of the slanted 0C line.
Check out that ripping 135 KT jet at 250 MB. I have to think dynamics like that can potentially ventilate a strong surface low somewhere. I just don't know where.
Check out that ripping 135 KT jet at 250 MB. I have to think dynamics like that can potentially ventilate a strong surface low somewhere. I just don't know where.
Yeah we had what is probably the #3 all time snow event here on a setup really close to this where the ULL cut off and a the trough tilted neg and really captured the coastal that fired off the SE coast and managed to bomb it out a bit and keep it captured....officially PGV had 11" and going into it we were expecting flurries with a dusting to a inch was the forecast....that said that is a extremely rare outlier for this setup where nothing to a light dusting/1" total is much much much more likely. At this point anything over 2-3" would be a huge bust in our favor based on latest guidance.
Check out that ripping 135 KT jet at 250 MB. I have to think dynamics like that can potentially ventilate a strong surface low somewhere. I just don't know where.
The gfs looks ok at 5h and you would think it would have a better surface reflection but it just can't seem to match the 2 up. MHX isn't enthused by the prospects though.
Post by snowlover91 on Jan 14, 2018 17:00:56 GMT -5
Folks need to keep in mind with our last storm the globals, outside of the GFS, were dry for everyone and gave the coast 1-2” of snow max. They didn’t figure things out until about 36-48 hours out. The only global that had the right idea was the UK and it shows 2-4” for Eastern NC still.
Post by downeastnc on Jan 14, 2018 17:22:25 GMT -5
18Z GFS was better 1-2" for PGV.....Monday night 00Z runs should have it locked down that will be 36 or so hrs out.....need to see it trend to a cutoff ULL and a decent SLP popping off SC coast otherwise 1-3" will be the ceiling...
18Z GFS was better 1-2" for PGV.....Monday night 00Z runs should have it locked down that will be 36 or so hrs out.....need to see it trend to a cutoff ULL and a decent SLP popping off SC coast otherwise 1-3" will be the ceiling...
Yeah fine line between a cut off and a squished trough. Nam did cut it off on 12z and is sooo close on the 18z. Problem is we need a solid trend stronger and a trend for a deeper trough.
Post by downeastnc on Jan 14, 2018 17:32:40 GMT -5
The trend this winter has been for troughs to sharpen up and be sharper than modeled....I just want to see the ground covered again, anything that falls Wed will be gone Friday this time around.....I just want to see 3-4 hrs of moderate snow during daytime....I think we stand a chance of getting 1-2" anything more than that will require the models to move back towards the runs they had several days ago.....