There’s plenty of cold on this one, that won’t be a concern for most except southern areas around Wilmington and such. Soundings are all snow for places like Raleigh, Greenville and Elizabeth city with more than enough cold available
I would think at this point we are probably good for at least a minor accumulating event anything from a dusting to 2-3". IF a coastal low can form then maybe more but thats still really not well modeled at this time so I wouldnt bank on it. The UK is the only one that really gets it going and .3-.4 QPF is way higher than the other models.
Nam was tasty at the end of the run, exactly where we want to see that SLP pop, if it could play out a few more frames central and interior eastern NC would get 3-5" I bet....
Last Edit: Jan 14, 2018 10:16:45 GMT -5 by downeastnc
I would think at this point we are probably good for at least a minor accumulating event anything from a dusting to 2-3". IF a coastal low can form then maybe more but thats still really not well modeled at this time so I wouldnt bank on it. The UK is the only one that really gets it going and .3-.4 QPF is way higher than the other models.
Nam was tasty at the end of the run, exactly where we want to see that SLP pop, if it could play out a few more frames central and interior eastern NC would get 3-5" I bet....
Yeah nam did amazing last storm except it was too amped. Once we get this storm in full nam range if you cut it’s totals by 40-50% you should get a very reasonable forecast. NAM is money.
yeah the name actually refers to the resolution of how it breaks down the atmosphere ( more or less ) so the 12k NAM looks at 12 x 12 km parcel while the NAM 3K looks at 3x3 km parcels ( again this is rough and dirty explanation) ..
GFS upgrade took it to 13km the first 240 hrs and 27 km after that....though you cant seem to tell it lol....
Euro is 15 km for the first 15 days then 36 km after that......I believe the CMC and UK are the same as the Euro
yeah the name actually refers to the resolution of how it breaks down the atmosphere ( more or less ) so the 12k NAM looks at 12 x 12 km parcel while the NAM 3K looks at 3x3 km parcels ( again this is rough and dirty explanation) ..
GFS upgrade took it to 13km the first 240 hrs and 27 km after that....though you cant seem to tell it lol....
Euro is 15 km for the first 15 days then 36 km after that......I believe the CMC and UK are the same as the Euro
NOt sure about the Icon/JMA/Brazilian etc....
The Hi Res models are all 3k more or less.
Excellent explanation Ron. Another reason I like the mesoscale models is they pick up on features the globals just can’t resolve. Things like a meso low, inverted trough, warm nose, etc the NAM and RGEM are great with while globals not so much. We are entering the range where the NAM, UK will be preferred and then RGEM once inside 48 hours.
My Wunderground auto forecast has risen 11 degrees since yesterday for Wednesday. We were at a forecasted high of 30 for Wednesday. Now that forecast for Wednesday has changed to 41.
My Wunderground auto forecast has risen 11 degrees since yesterday for Wednesday. We were at a forecasted high of 30 for Wednesday. Now that forecast for Wednesday has changed to 41.
That will be the temp at midnight Tues night, the temp will fall all day and the event shouldnt start till mid morning Wed morning and its likely to begin as a rain snow mix, however the soundings are very cold above the surface and the only temps above freezing will be near the surface.....thats why if this is a marginal event with light rates we will struggle to accumulate as the surface will be borderline temps in the low to mid 30's to start but the cold should work in at the surface too eventually so it will turn to all snow for everyone eventually....
If the low off the coast forms and the tilt of the trough is more neg then the surface temps will easily be overcome and if w actually get .3-.5" QPF most of us will see a 3-6" snowfall....assuming of course this all pans out like that.
Here is the NAM sounding for PGV on the 84 hr frame its about as good as it gets to see snow...
My Wunderground auto forecast has risen 11 degrees since yesterday for Wednesday. We were at a forecasted high of 30 for Wednesday. Now that forecast for Wednesday has changed to 41.
That will be the temp at midnight Tues night, the temp will fall all day and the event shouldnt start till mid morning Wed morning and its likely to begin as a rain snow mix, however the soundings are very cold above the surface and the only temps above freezing will be near the surface.....thats why if this is a marginal event with light rates we will struggle to accumulate as the surface will be borderline temps in the low to mid 30's to start but the cold should work in at the surface too eventually so it will turn to all snow for everyone eventually....
If the low off the coast forms and the tilt of the trough is more neg then the surface temps will easily be overcome and if w actually get .3-.5" QPF most of us will see a 3-6" snowfall....assuming of course this all pans out like that.
Here is the NAM sounding for PGV on the 84 hr frame its about as good as it gets to see snow...
I'm borderline retarded. I dont know how to read the soundings.
Post by downeastnc on Jan 14, 2018 13:45:15 GMT -5
OK basically the numbers on the bottom on the chart on the left is temps....the numbers on the left are heights in pressure so when you hear us talk about 925,850,700,500 MB etc thats what we are talking about...this sounding shows temps in the entire column below freezing. the lines slant so the 0 line actually goes up at a angle to the right, the 3 lines are actual temp/DP/wetbulb temp....they all meet where the air saturates which in this sounding is around 13-17k ft and its in the best zone for snow growth....
here is a sounding showing a warm nose at 850 mb, this is just a example and has nothing to do with the upcoming storm the yellow line is the freezing line and you notice the lines all cross it then go back left of it before the ground that indicates there is a layer of warm air above the surface, its 29 at the surface....it looks like a nose thus the term warm nose....
Last Edit: Jan 14, 2018 15:22:34 GMT -5 by snowlover91
Wow. I've learned something. So where do I get individual soundings for different cities?
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On tropical tidbits you can click on the map where you want to get the sounding and it gives you the sounding of the closest reporting station I believe.