January 17-18 Snow threat

Jan 13, 2018 0:20:30 GMT -5 snowlover91 said:

Jan 12, 2018 23:46:49 GMT -5 downeastnc said:

This is gonna happen, just the fact its a repeating Wed storm is enough to sell me on it, but its got the Euro,GFS,Navgem and now CMC and ICON all showing some form of snow over us next Wed....they will fluctuate with timing and strength etc but the chances are going up pretty fast that we see accumulating snow next Wed....It wont be till Sunday when the hi res come into range and the energy is starting to get sampled that the details will start to get clear. I wouldn't ignore it just cause its only the globals Snow whenever the GFS/Euro/Navgem all have it there is usually something there.

Maybe, but even if we do get the moisture, we could easily see a meso low like the Euro has and be all rain with snow to end. The 12z euro was pretty ugly for us with almost all rain and finally ending as light snow. Waiting to see if the UK comes on board tonight, should be out soon. 

The Euro still keeps the snow inland and more N/S versus E/W....but its kinda by itself and it hasn't exactly been burning up the verification scores lately so it being different isn't as daunting as it normally would be for the Euro to be Dr Noing you.

Almost all models have a decent event now, the Euro,GFS,UK,CMC,ICON,Navgem  all show accumulating snow over or darn close to us.....with really cold upper air with 15:1 rations with even .25-.30 QPF would be 4-6" that's pretty darn good considering we just had one that big a week ago.  This setup is usually good for us if the storm actually forms and dives into the bottom of the trough, we really need to see it evolve to going slightly neg over us instead of a tiny bit pos or neutral like it is now...