Post by downeastnc on Dec 25, 2017 14:48:07 GMT -5
Cold and suppressed isnt a bad look in this range.....would rather the Euro be a miss to the SE than to the NW.....GFS was a decent hit for us both storms, and there is 3-4 waves that can potentially give us winter weather over the next 7-8 days...I think chances are very high that everyone sees some winter weather....
Post by snowlover91 on Dec 25, 2017 14:50:32 GMT -5
What’s interesting to me is the little Wednesday morning event is almost nonexistent on the globals but the mesoscale models are really picking up on that now. The NAM is showing 1-2” of snow from it and the RGEM a solid dusting to an inch.
What’s interesting to me is the little Wednesday morning event is almost nonexistent on the globals but the mesoscale models are really picking up on that now. The NAM is showing 1-2” of snow from it and the RGEM a solid dusting to an inch.
Yeah we shall see, a lot of times though those events under perform....though we are due one to break in our favor though I would rather use our mojo/luck on the Jan 1 event and get 6-10' of snow followed by 2-3 days of crazy cold.
Face it gang... Our fantasy snow porn was just that. A fantasy. Nothing to speak of. I hate to jump, but I'm off the cliff.
Nah, give it another day. Suppressed modeling is a good look for us at 3 1/2 days.
Merry Christmas, everyone!
Merry Christmas!
I like our chances with both systems. This first wave has amped up as we have gotten closer, at least on the mesoscale models. I wouldn’t be surprised if the same thing happens with our main wave Thursday/Friday.
Post by downeastnc on Dec 25, 2017 18:49:11 GMT -5
2-3" on Friday then 5+" on Monday ( I think these systems over perform and amp up a bit more than currently modeled ), the cold air keeps the first 2" around then 5"or more Monday with vodka cold air moving in means the snow will lie for a solid 5-7 days and roads will be flat out treacherous for 3-4 days.....I love it....gonna be cold enough to freeze all the ponds rivers etc...
Nah, give it another day. Suppressed modeling is a good look for us at 3 1/2 days.
Merry Christmas, everyone!
Merry Christmas!
I like our chances with both systems. This first wave has amped up as we have gotten closer, at least on the mesoscale models. I wouldn’t be surprised if the same thing happens with our main wave Thursday/Friday.
18Z GFS plays the Jan 1-3 event about as perfectly as it can go for us, all we need if for it to amp up a tiny bit more once its offshore and eastern NC will jackpot and 6-10" wont be a rare total....
Wed will have some snow/sleet temps though are a issue so probably anything that sticks will melt out fast, Friday looks dead but it could come back it wouldnt be the first time the models lose the storm in the mid range, same with the NY day threat better to have it suppressed offshore than tracking right up the coast in this range.
Post by downeastnc on Dec 26, 2017 10:36:56 GMT -5
Well the 12Z runs are showing warmer temps for the Wed event so it might end up a cold rain lol....models really backing off the cold and its probably right we never do good with the heart of the cold over the upper Mid West...Friday looks more interesting it might be on the comeback....still I think Jan 1-3 still the best chance at something big.....
I have a sneaking suspicion that the NYD storm will disappear on the models as we get closer. That's the way things have been. Everyone was on full tilt for multiple threats late last week and BOOM! they all disappeared. Be prepared for heartbreak. Just looking at the models at 12Z and the GFS is in no man's land sitting on an island by itself.