Post by snowlover91 on Dec 23, 2017 23:19:21 GMT -5
Let’s get this started. Inside 5 days now on models. Euro, CMC and GFS have a decent ice storm with the CMC being the most bullish for now. Here’s tonight’s CMC run... super CAD anyone?
Last Edit: Dec 26, 2017 11:53:45 GMT -5 by Fountainguy97
Post by downeastnc on Dec 23, 2017 23:31:37 GMT -5
00Z GFS has two weaker frozen events one Dec 29th the other Jan 1......still waiting on rest of run but I am betting another big hit Jan 4-5th or it keeps it way suppressed.....
Hopefully everything will get pushed further and further south. If it looks that good now then by the time it actually arrives it will be warmer and rain.
Post by snowlover91 on Dec 24, 2017 8:21:17 GMT -5
I’m pretty concerned about the ice threat for all of NC, especially areas that stay zr. This isn’t your normal CAD, there will be a 1045 HP pumping cold and dry air at the surface the entire time. A weak LP off the coast so little WAA too. You could easily see Greenville to Wilmington with temps hovering 29-31 the entire event with a ton of zr. Don’t blow this one off... wait till we get in range of NAM before preparing for power outages.
Major events are rare and few and far between. While the model output is one that can cause concern I would be very surprised to see that much ice east of 95. Only 2 maybe 3 times in my life have i seen major icing events. Last one that was bad for us was way back in like 1995 or something.
Post by lowpressure on Dec 24, 2017 8:46:24 GMT -5
Ice threat is becoming a legitimate concern. Snow line has dropped south the last few model runs, which is nice. Still ice may be a big issue for a large area. As stated, not your normal CAD situation. NAM will be interesting, getting close to its range. Trim those tree branches before Thursday.
Major events are rare and few and far between. While the model output is one that can cause concern I would be very surprised to see that much ice east of 95. Only 2 maybe 3 times in my life have i seen major icing events. Last one that was bad for us was way back in like 1995 or something.
This very well could be one of those rare times. A 1045-46HP in perfect CAD position for the duration of the storm combined with a bitterly cold and dry air mass already in place is a recipe for a super CAD. This one is no joke and I’m a bit worried that when NAM gets in range it’s going to show an ugly ice storm... When the models all show it it’s cause for concern. I’d recommend thinking about plans in case you lose power for a long duration...
Major events are rare and few and far between. While the model output is one that can cause concern I would be very surprised to see that much ice east of 95. Only 2 maybe 3 times in my life have i seen major icing events. Last one that was bad for us was way back in like 1995 or something.
This very well could be one of those rare times. A 1045-46HP in perfect CAD position for the duration of the storm combined with a bitterly cold and dry air mass already in place is a recipe for a super CAD. This one is no joke and I’m a bit worried that when NAM gets in range it’s going to show an ugly ice storm... When the models all show it it’s cause for concern. I’d recommend thinking about plans in case you lose power for a long duration...
CMC track with the SLP would be ice to rain for PGV.....any track with a surface low that strong and close to Hatteras would be enough to flip us and most everyone east if I 95......or it would be 30-32 with moderate to heavy rain and that would reduce how much ice we got since it wouldnt be cold enough for mod to heavy rain to have time to freeze good. We need to low to be 100 miles further east so we stay snow. The GFS storm tracks are so much better there is little chance we actually go to ice with the lows that far off shore and weaker.....I would rather get two 2-3" snows a few days apart than a useless ice storm. I would rather have 33 and rain all day than a ice storm.
Major events are rare and few and far between. While the model output is one that can cause concern I would be very surprised to see that much ice east of 95. Only 2 maybe 3 times in my life have i seen major icing events. Last one that was bad for us was way back in like 1995 or something.
This very well could be one of those rare times. A 1045-46HP in perfect CAD position for the duration of the storm combined with a bitterly cold and dry air mass already in place is a recipe for a super CAD. This one is no joke and I’m a bit worried that when NAM gets in range it’s going to show an ugly ice storm... When the models all show it it’s cause for concern. I’d recommend thinking about plans in case you lose power for a long duration...
Well let's take into account typical although not set in stone model history. We know we almost always see a NW trend. Areas east of 95 on the cmc barely stay frozen and end up switching to rain based on the maps....havent looked at individual soundings yet. Then we typically see a significant cutting of qpf closer to the event. So if the models showing .61 of ZR then cutting that by 1/3rd at a minimum makes this a typical ice storm with .4ish of ZR and thats not gonna cripple an area for days on end.
My point is this is still along way out in terms of modeling and tons can still change. It's safe to say out area isn't likely to see much if any snow and not much a shift to the west and we likely go all rain.
This very well could be one of those rare times. A 1045-46HP in perfect CAD position for the duration of the storm combined with a bitterly cold and dry air mass already in place is a recipe for a super CAD. This one is no joke and I’m a bit worried that when NAM gets in range it’s going to show an ugly ice storm... When the models all show it it’s cause for concern. I’d recommend thinking about plans in case you lose power for a long duration...
CMC track with the SLP would be ice to rain for PGV.....any track with a surface low that strong and close to Hatteras would be enough to flip us and most everyone east if I 95......or it would be 30-32 with moderate to heavy rain and that would reduce how much ice we got since it wouldnt be cold enough for mod to heavy rain to have time to freeze good. We need to low to be 100 miles further east so we stay snow. The GFS storm tracks are so much better there is little chance we actually go to ice with the lows that far off shore and weaker.....I would rather get two 2-3" snows a few days apart than a useless ice storm. I would rather have 33 and rain all day than a ice storm.
The HP and CAD would be strong enough to hold off the warm air advection that would bring pgv above freezing. This isn’t your normal CAD setup, this is a super CAD and when you look at ones we’ve had in the past they brought widespread ice even to Greenville. If the CMC and German setup verifies people better be getting ready for power outages.
Post by snowlover91 on Dec 24, 2017 10:28:21 GMT -5
Here’s a look at the CAD as modeled by the German model. It performs very well just like the CMC with CAD setups. Look how far south and west the cold air gets. This won’t be dislodged unless the surface low goes inland.
Here’s a look at the CAD as modeled by the German model. It performs very well just like the CMC with CAD setups. Look how far south and west the cold air gets. This won’t be dislodged unless the surface low goes inland.
We are very very close to being too far east. Any NW trend or weaker cad that modeled and those east of 95 are screwed.
Jeff and chuck are gonna be screwed in the icy way. Those are the guys that need to be preparing for this possible event.
Post by downeastnc on Dec 24, 2017 12:10:00 GMT -5
Yeah 30-32 doesnt cut it for real ice accrual, we would need pingers to accumulate at that temp, heavy rain and 30-32 equals a bit of ice in tree tops and cars and wet roads.....I would rather it just rain......RDU and west will get crushed and they can have it. Latest GFS has straight rain for PGV most of the second heavier event so any ice that does build up will melt off fast, the first wave will be lighter. I just dont give a crap avout ice setups they bore me, give me 1-2" of snow over any kind of ice any day. Hope this one bust or trends snow.
