Thanks for the updates gentlemen, please keep up the good work. No doubt many fascinating runs ahead and hopefully we get something exciting without too much drama. How are we looking post-event? Quick melt, staying in the fridge, or perhaps even more following? Anyone have an outlook for January as a whole?
Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin to slit throats. H.L. Mencken
Yeah 30-32 doesnt cut it for real ice accrual, we would need pingers to accumulate at that temp, heavy rain and 30-32 equals a bit of ice in tree tops and cars and wet roads.....I would rather it just rain......RDU and west will get crushed and they can have it. Latest GFS has straight rain for PGV most of the second heavier event so any ice that does build up will melt off fast, the first wave will be lighter. I just dont give a crap avout ice setups they bore me, give me 1-2" of snow over any kind of ice any day. Hope this one bust or trends snow.
GFS is awful with temps, even worse after the upgrade. It’s been shown to be 10F too warm in CAD and dynamic cooling scenarios. Never use it for temps. Outside of NAM range the CMC and Euro are much better and inside 60 hours the 3km NAM is money.
The trend to a weaker wave and more of a weak Miller A is interesting. We just need the LP a bit closer to the coast, the cmc scenario but closer to shore.
One other consideration will be the potential for some sites to stay below freezing for an extended period of time.
Euro has several days with highs around 20F and lows single digits across NC. If we have widespread snow and ice cover that’s definitely a possibility. Here’s a summary of model runs from 12z below.
Canadian - Snowiest model with 6-8” of snow. Very cold. GFS - Front end snow then sleet and freezing rain. Euro - Front end snow a few hours before going to a mix. Around 3-4” of actual snow. German - 3-6” of snow and around .50-.75 of freezing rain. UK - Suppresses the storm, little to no precip.
Post by downeastnc on Dec 24, 2017 18:43:17 GMT -5
18Z GFS was awesome thats how it needs to go down, would be better to get more snow on the first thump but I will deal with a bit of ice and sleet if a 6-10" storm is the payoff.
Be prepared for the biggest snowfall in eastern NC history (Raleigh eastward) I am in Memphis.
Man now I know we are going to get slammed. Preston is also going to be out of town... the stars are aligning...
00z NAM coming in a little more amped and colder so far through hour 75. Brings a few flurries through Wednesday morning with a separate wave that rolls through.
Be prepared for the biggest snowfall in eastern NC history (Raleigh eastward) I am in Memphis.
Man now I know we are going to get slammed. Preston is also going to be out of town... the stars are aligning...
00z NAM coming in a little more amped and colder so far through hour 75. Brings a few flurries through Wednesday morning with a separate wave that rolls through.
Post by snowlover91 on Dec 25, 2017 14:05:31 GMT -5
Interesting models today. From the 12z runs here is the summary.
RGEM - Wednesday morning snow (only goes out 48 hrs) NAM - Looks similar to the GFS with our main event Thursday and Friday but doesn’t go far enough to tell. Has 1-2” for the Wednesday event. NAVGEM - Shows a decent LP near the coast and plenty of precip. Euro - Dry as a bone UK - Dry except along immediate coastal and inland areas. Improved from 00z run. GFS - Decent snow and ice for NC. Better than 06z run.