Post by downeastnc on Aug 27, 2017 16:07:38 GMT -5
NHC track brings it in NC/SC border as a 40 mph TS then up over the IBX and back OTS around Nags Head......rain and some minor surge only real issues unless something stupid happens IRT intensity and there really looks to be nothing to make anyone suspect that this will be anything other than advertised.
Last Edit: Aug 27, 2017 16:07:55 GMT -5 by downeastnc
NHC track brings it in NC/SC border as a 40 mph TS then up over the IBX and back OTS around Nags Head......rain and some minor surge only real issues unless something stupid happens IRT intensity and there really looks to be nothing to make anyone suspect that this will be anything other than advertised.
Its only worth the data as far as tornado counts go. If we have a landfall on the coast of NC then the number of tornadoes we had prior to June 1st would be worth noting to add to our previous data. Other than that its gonna be nothing better than a weak nor'easter.
Post by downeastnc on Aug 27, 2017 20:41:31 GMT -5
still firing good storms east of the center if the shear backs off at all this thing will exceed expectations....it already has a pretty good circulation in spite of the shear. If it takes the NAM/GFS track then 3-6" I95 to the east seems likely with wind gusting to 35-40 mph probably being the highest we see wind wise.
Post by snowlover91 on Aug 27, 2017 22:02:02 GMT -5
Going to be a decent bit of rainfall it seems. Models keep ticking up with QPF. NAM now showing 3-5” with up to 8” near Raleigh. GFS has widespread 1-3” and higher along the coast. Euro up too with 2-3 highway 17 and east.
00Z GFS edged multiple inches a bit farther inland.
EDIT: And now the new 2-day QPF product from WPC has my location bumped up to around 2" of rain -- 6" on the coast. Things are moving in the right direction -- at least, for weather geeks who like getting a show for their money.
I the shear doesnt back off this thing wont be able to get itself organized very much....still it should bring some rain in here today and tomorrow.....even then it not looking like that will even be to much.
Post by downeastnc on Aug 28, 2017 13:58:24 GMT -5
Yeah the HRRR is the outlier though so we shall see, the gradient is going to be pretty tight even if this thing never becomes a storm.....already sustained in the mid 10's gusting to mid 20's at times......with the high moving ESE and the storm moving NNE that will only make the winds stronger so we may in fact see gust tomorrow into the low 40's with 2-4" of rain....but that's about as worse case as you can get lol.
The shear will become more SW and since the storm will begin moving NNE the relative shear effect will decrease some for a brief window tonight into tomorrow, still that isn't looking like it will be enough to get this thing wrapped up based on current radar and sat trends....however these things can and will do what they want often laughing in the face of expectations based on conditions, so I guess we shall see if it can become Irma after all.
Just back from a pleasant bike ride to the grocery store, one that much reminded of weather on the Delaware Coast. Oh yea, that heavy, low, chunky overcast with a cool misty breeze blowing in from the ocean when a high was to the north and a low to the south. Sometimes those highs would produce considerable wind with a storm still well in the distance. Those "gradient nor'easters" could kick up some good seas all on their own.
I hope you all enjoyed this Delightful Delaware Day.
Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin to slit throats. H.L. Mencken
Post by downeastnc on Aug 28, 2017 17:47:14 GMT -5
RDU is a bit bullish puts are neck of the woods in the bullseye for best rain and wind due to the baroclinic processes etc...it will be interesting to see what the HRRR shows in terms of peak 10M gust later tonight once it gets into range.
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT AND TUESDAY/...
As of 232 PM Monday...
...A flash flood watch and wind advisory remain in effect south and east of the Triangle from 8 pm this evening through 8 pm Tuesday...
12Z model guidance suggests that potential tropical cyclone 10 will track just inland of the NC coast late tonight and Tuesday. With an upper level trough approaching from the west, expect the heaviest precipitation (2-5" or 3-6") to fall left-of-track along/west of Hwy 17 between midnight tonight and ~noon on Tuesday, with a tight gradient in precipitation amounts on the NW periphery of the cyclone (invof the Hwy 1 corridor). If PTC10 tracks further west than currently anticipated, significant rainfall (and flash flooding) would be possible invof the Triangle. With ~1020 mb high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic, the MSLP gradient will be tightest on the W/NW periphery of PTC10, and a period of strong northerly winds/ gusts will be possible in concert with heavy rain and rapid pressure falls south/east of the Triangle tonight/early Tue, and perhaps again Tue afternoon as winds back to the NNW/NW in response to pressure rises in the wake of PTC10. Ultimately, precipitation amounts and winds in central NC will highly depend on the precise timing/track/intensity of PTC10, and adjustments to the flash flood watch and wind advisory area may be required later this aft/eve into tonight.
Expect below normal highs ranging from near 70F in the N/NW Piedmont to the mid 70s in the far SE Coastal Plain. -Vincent
Last Edit: Aug 28, 2017 18:04:39 GMT -5 by downeastnc